Jimmy Rollins: The Perfect Phillie

J Roll with his World Series ring

Every team has certain players who are the icons of the franchise, the most recognizable and beloved stars the organization has ever had. The Yankees have had a bunch from Ruth to Gehrig to DiMaggio to Mantle to Jeter. The Orioles had Cal Ripken, The Cardinals had Stan Musial, the Cubs had Ernie Banks. The Marlins had a bunch of greats but they traded them all. Some players, due to their leadership, charisma, and connection with their fans transcend statistical measures and become legends. The Phillies are one of the MLB's oldest teams, and have had their share of great players. The greatest third baseman to ever play the game, Mike Schmidt, played in Philly. Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, Pete Alexander, and Bobby Abreu all spent most or all of their careers there. The Phillies have had an incredible number of great players recently. From the years 2005-2014 Phillies players have combined for 26 All Star Games, a Rookie of the Year, 6 Silver Sluggers, 7 Gold Gloves, 2 MVPs, a Cy Young, and have had players lead the league in home runs twice and in RBI and triples 3 times. They went to two World Series and won the National League East for four consecutive years. Three of the top five seasons in WAR by a pitcher since 2005 have come on the Phillies (Roy Halladay 2011 and 2010, Cliff Lee 2011). Three of the top 6 pitchers in total WAR since 2005 played on the Phillies (Halladay is second, Lee is third, and Cole Hamels is sixth). Chase Utley is second only to Albert Pujols in total WAR since 2005. In this giant group of all time greats, only one player is the perfect icon for the team: Jimmy Rollins.

Short, scrappy, and absurdly talented: Jimmy Rollins is the perfect Philadelphia sports icon.

                   Rollins' career saw him lead two generations of Phillies teams. From 1988-2000 the Phils only had 1 winning season, their 97 win 1993. The next best season after that was 78 wins in 1991. Then, in 2001, Jroll's rookie year, they started winning. From 2001-2012, they only had one losing season (2002 when they went 80-81). For his first few years, Rollins was part of a pretty good core of Phillies along with Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, Placido Polanco, Mike Lieberthal, and Jim Thome. With that group they were able to average 85 wins per year from 2001-2004. When the Phillies were ready to transition from a good to a great team Rollins led the way. Before the 2007 season began, he said:

“The Mets had a chance to win the World Series last year. Last year is over. I think we are the team to beat in the NL East, finally. But, that's only on paper."

        That season the Phillies won the first of their four consecutive division championships. From 2005-2007 the Phillies young talent exploded as they brought up players like Utley, Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Madson as well as adding Jamie Moyer and Brad Lidge in free agency. In the late 2000s and early 10's they added Halladay, Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Throughout all this time, Jimmy Rollins remained the team's leader.

Lidge and Ruiz after winning the World Series

            With his leadership alone, Rollins' status as a Phillies legend would have been guaranteed. But Rollins was never all talk. He is an incredible player. In Phillies history, he is 10^th all time in career WAR, second in games played, third in runs scored, first in hits, first in doubles, third in triples, ninth in home runs, and second in steals. He is among the leaders in pretty much every statistical category for a team that has been around since 1883. 

 

Rollins sets the Phillies all time hits record. Great moment for a great player.

           Rollins' variety of skills is almost unbelievable. In only 14 seasons, he has 2306 hits, 216 home runs, 479 doubles, 111 triples, and 453 steals. There have been only six players in the history of the MLB with 2,000+ hits, 200+ home runs, and 450+ stolen bases: Paul Molitor, Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Roberto Alomar, Joe Morgan, and Rollins. Only Molitor and Rollins have also had over 100 career triples. Rollins has played 289 fewer career games than Roberto Alomar, the player with the next fewest career games played in this club.

J Roll and Manager Charlie Manuel

          How about this for well-roundedness: in 2007, the year Rollins won the MVP, he hit .296/.344/.531 with 30 homers, 38 doubles, 20 triples, and 41 steals. That season put him in the exclusive 20-20-20-20 club of players who recorded at least 20 homers, doubles, triples, and steals in a single season. He is only joined in this club by Willie Mays in 1957 (35 homers, 26 doubles, 20 triples, and 38 steals) and Frank “Wildfire” Schlute in 1911 (21 homers, 30 doubles, 21 triples, and 23 steals). You know you're good when the only player to match you within 90 seasons is Willie Mays. 

Willie Mays: You might have heard of him. He was pretty good.

                Rollins has had five seasons with at least 10 hr, 20 2b, 10 3b, and 30 sb, and had two more where he met all of the criteria but with only 9 triples. This is tied for the most such seasons in MLB history. Only Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes match him with five, only George Sisler has done it four times, and only Willie Mays and Johnny Damon have three 10-20-10-30 seasons. Very few players can even come close to comparing to Rollins in his ability to fill up a stat sheet.

           During his Phillies career Rollins wasn't just the team's vocal leader and one of the most versatile offensive players ever. He is a fantastic defensive player at shortstop, the second hardest position on the field after catcher. Of all shortstops in MLB history, Rollins is 21^st in double plays turned, 30^th in total fielding runs above average, 3^rd in fielding percentage, and is tied for 6^th in Gold Gloves with 4. 

Rollins and Utley, the greatest double play team of their generation

             Rollins wasn't a perfect player. He struck out too often for a lead off hitter, and could have probably hit for a much higher average if he swung with less power. These flaws were often criticized by the Philadelphia fans (you know, the ones who booed Donavan McNabb when he was drafted and drove Scott Rolen and Eric Lindros out of town). However, Jimmy Rollins is the perfect Philadelphia athlete.
        Philly wants tough guys and big talkers, hyper competitive types who have been called too small or too slow their whole lives. We want Brian Dawkins, Brian Westbrook, and Allen Iverson. Philly sports fans have a completely different attitude from that of fans of other teams around the country. That comes with having incredibly passionate fans and teams that are mostly successful but rarely great. The Eagles have never won the Super Bowl, the Phillies have more total losses than any other major sports franchise, Villanova and the 76ers haven't won a championship since the 80s, and the Sixers' current goal is to lose as many games as possible. Compare that to fans in New York who can root for consistent excellence with the Yankees, Giants, and Rangers, or, if they are masochists, choose to cheer on the Jets, Nets, Mets, Islanders, and Knicks. Being New York fans they will also be completely ignorant of whether their team is actually any good and just assume that they are. San Francisco fans have had 2 of the 5 greatest football players ever (Montana and Rice) and 2 of the 3 best baseball players ever (Mays and Bonds), have won 5 Super Bowls, and seem to be on track to win the World Series every other year for the rest of time. Boston fans have a chip on their shoulder like Philly fans, but their 4 major teams have won 25 championships since 1960 and 9 in the past 15 years, so they really shouldn't complain. The most similar sports city to Philadelphia is really Seattle, who had their beloved Sonics stolen to go play in one of America's worst states, have won zero championships with the Mariners (despite having all time greats like Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro, Jamie Moyer, and Randy Johnson and winning a MLB record 116 games in 2001), and had never won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks until 2014.
               Effortless greats like Alex Rodriguez or Shaquille O'Neal would never fit in in Philly. Terell Owens is one of the most hated athletes in Philadelphia sports history. Philly boxers are always the underdog to the more perfect, more polished, more athletic guy; think Rocky Vs Apollo Creed, Joe Frazier vs. Muhammad Ali, or Bernard Hopkins vs Roy Jones Jr. Philadelphia was once America's capital, home of Benjamin Franklin and the Liberty bell; but today is always overshadowed by New York, Boston, and Washington DC. Now remember that back in 2001, Jimmy Rollins finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting after Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Roy Oswalt, and CC Sabathia. Looking back to that year, as a Phillies fan, who would I want to pick to play on my team for the next 15 years? Pujols, the muscular baseball god who would go on to be the greatest hitter of his generation? Ichiro, the smooth, polished, ready-made superstar from Japan? The short Mississippi ace Oswalt, or the giant fastballer Sabathia? Given the choice, I think it worked out perfectly. I would want to have the short, speedy guy from Oakland who was just cocky enough to believe that he could be a power hitter and that the Phillies could overcome years of mediocrity to win the World Series. He may not have been as great a player as Chase Utley or Roy Halladay, but the Phillies would not have become the team they became without Rollins.

   The Philly Greats (Clockwise): Bernard Hopkins, Allen Iverson, Kyle Lowry, Rollins, Jameer Nelson, and Brian Dawkins.

What Could Have Been: The Potentially Great Baseball Career of Deion Saunders

A young, jheri-curled Prime Time

• Just to clarify: Deion Sanders is one of the greatest football players of all time. He was possibly the most versatile player who ever played in the NFL. He is 24^th all time in career interceptions, tied for 30^th in career kick return touchdowns, and tied for 8^th in career punt return touchdowns. He was an incredible athlete who could be the best cornerback and the best kick and punt returner in the league most years while also playing receiver. Because of that incredible athletic ability he was able to play in the MLB at a fairly high level at the same time that he was in the NFL. Just the fact that he was good enough to play both sports at the highest level at the same time is incredible. There have been several people who have tried to play both at the same time. Most have been much closer to the University of Washington's All-American linebacker Shaq Thompson (who played 13 games on the GCL Red Sox minor league team and had a spectacular stat line of zero hits, 8 walks, and 37 strikeouts) than they have been to Sanders. Tom Brady, Michael Vick, and Russell Wilson were all drafted by MLB teams; none of them attempted to play both football and baseball at the same time. It is insane to think that someone could manage to play both sports at a high level at the same time. The amount of practice needed to maintain that high of a skill level in either baseball or football should be more than a full time job. However, Deion Sanders was able to be an above-average baseball player and a Hall of Fame football player at the same time. He played both sports, but his focus was clearly on football, which was obviously a good decision for him. But just for curiosity's sake, how good could he have been if he had focused all of his efforts on baseball?

  

  On the super-bowl winning 1994 49ers

  
  

  

  Saunder's 1992 Upper Deck card showing him playing both sports

  
  
• The first thing to look at is what he actually did in his MLB career. In total, he played in 9 different seasons, with his highest single season game total coming in 1997 when he played 115 games. Despite never playing a full season, he still did some pretty impressive things. He led the league in triples in 1992 with 14 even though he only played 97 games. He finished 4^th in the league in stolen bases in the strike season 1994 and finished 5^th in steals in his career high 115 game 1997. These seasons showed flashes of his immense potential. 
  
  
  
• The next step is to round up his actual stats to full seasons. So for example, in 1994 he played 92 games, so I multiplied all of his stats by 1.5 which would be the equivalent of a 138 game season. I then kept the home runs, doubles, triples, and steals as whatever they multiplied to but I assumed that with extra focus on baseball he would be able to add 20 points to his batting average and 30 points to his OBP each year. I also assumed, due to his ability as a cornerback, that he would be worth an average of 1.0 dWAR each year in center field due to the extra focus on baseball. I then assumed that he would be able to play from ages 22-37 (the same as his NFL career), would play every season, and would have a normal level of decline in his mid-30s. For the seasons that he did not play baseball in (his age 28, 30, 31, 32, 34, 35, 36, and 37 years) I just took the average of the three previous seasons and plugged them in, and then took an average level of decline as he entered his mid 30s.
• So in the entirely hypothetical scenario I laid out, here is Deion Sanders' new MLB career:

Year	Age	Games	AVG	OBP	HR	2B	3B	SB	WAR
1990	22	114	178	296	6	2	2	16	1.3
1991	23	108	211	300	8	2	4	22	1
1992	24	145	324	386	12	9	21	39	6.8
1993	25	142	296	351	9	27	9	29	5
1994	26	138	303	372	6	26	6	57	4
1995	27	128	288	357	9	17	12	36	4
1996	28	139	295	363	7	20	9	55	3.7
1997	29	150	293	359	7	17	9	73	3.1
1998	30	139	292	360	8	18	10	55	3.6
1999	31	139	292	360	8	18	10	55	3.6
2000	32	139	292	360	8	18	10	55	3.6
2001	33	130	287	350	7	17	8	45	3.1
2002	34	130	282	340	6	16	6	35	2.6
2003	35	130	277	330	5	15	4	25	2.1
2004	36	120	272	320	4	14	2	15	1.7
2005	37	110	267	310	3	13	0	5	1.1
Career Totals:			278	345	113	249	122	617	50.3

      

      With these rounded-up stats, Prime Time would have probably been a multi-time All Star, would have been 13^th all time in career stolen bases, and would have had more steals than anyone in the 1990-2005 period. He would also have finished 12^th in career triples by anyone since 1950. This scenario would have led to him finishing his career as a not-quite hall of famer but very good player; he would have comparable stats to players like Willie Wilson and Kenny Lofton. I believe that my estimates were probably fairly conservative; with a full time focus on baseball his natural athleticism would probably allow him to be an all time great. But even just very simply rounding his stats up to what he would have had if he played full seasons at the same level that he did in reality shows a very good player. He probably wouldn't have had as great a career as he did in football, but it is amazing how great he could have been at his second-best sport.

Also, since the 90s were an incredible time to be a sports fan, here is Deion Sanders in a dunk competition against Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Conley's dad:

The Most Inexplicable MVP Award in MLB History

• The American League in 1984 featured several great performances by legendary players. A 23 year-old Cal Ripken, coming off of his first MVP award the previous season, hit .304/.374/.510 with 27 HR, 37 doubles, and 7 triples while playing all 162 games. His 10.0 WAR that year was the second highest of his career, following only his 11.5 in 1991. He finished 27^th in American League MVP voting. Ripken's fellow Oriole Eddie Murray was almost as good. He played all 162 games as well, hitting .306/.410/.509 with 29 homers, 26 doubles, 110 RBI, and a league-leading 107 walks while winning the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger at first base. He finished with a career-high 7.1 WAR, and was 4^th in MVP voting. A 24 year old Lloyd Moseby hit .280/.368/.470 with 18 homers, 28 2B, 39 steals, 7.2 WAR, and led the league with 15 triples. He finished 22^nd in MVP voting. The always underrated Alan Trammell had a great season as well; his 6.7 WAR that year tied for the second-highest of his career. He hit .314/.382/.468 with 14 home runs, 34 doubles, and 19 steals while finishing with 2.2 dWAR (second among shortstops to Ripken's 3.6) and won the Gold Glove. There were some great pitching performances in the American League that year as well. Dave Stieb went 16-8 with a 2.83 ERA, led the MLB in innings pitched (267), ERA+ (146), and pitching WAR (5.6). He finished 7^th in Cy Young voting. His fellow Blue Jay Doyle Alexander went 17-7 with a 3.13 ERA and 3.8 WAR. He did not receive a single Cy Young vote. Out in Cleveland, Bert Blyleven was almost as good as Stieb, with a 19-7 record, a 2.87 ERA, 245 innings pitched, 144 ERA+, and 5.1 WAR. He finished third in Cy Young voting.

  

  Cal Ripken

  
  
• So who won the 1984 American League MVP? Was it Ripken, far and away the best player in either league? His teammate Murray? Allan Trammell, the best player on the Detroit Tigers, the MLB's best team? The answer: Willie Hernandez. Hernandez was the closer on the Tigers, and had a pretty good season. He finished 9-3 with a 1.92 ERA and 32 saves. His 4.8 WAR put him 9^th among all pitchers. He was a solid all-star player on the league's best team. His season should be remembered as such, but he won the MVP and Cy Young that year which would imply that his was one of the greatest seasons of all time. 

  

  • I have had this Topps card of Willie Hernandez since I was about 5. When I was that age I just thought he was a weird-looking player. Years later when I found out he had won the MVP, I knew something must have gone horribly wrong.

  
  
  

  

  More Hernandez cards. Between the hair, glasses, mustache, and giant wad of tobacco, I don't know if anyone has ever looked this bad on this many baseball cards.

• Generally, for a pitcher to win an MVP they have to be historically great. Here is the list of all pitchers who have won the MVP award since 1950:
  

  1. Clayton Kershaw 2014
  1. 21-3, 1.77 ERA, 7.1 WAR 
  2.  Justin Verlander 2011
  1. 24-5, 2.40 ERA, 8.4 WAR
  3.  Dennis Eckersley 1992
  1. 7-1, 1.91 ERA, 51 Saves, 2.9 WAR
  4.  Roger Clemens 1986
  1. 24-4, 2.48 ERA, 8.9 WAR 
  5. Willie Hernandez 1984
  1.  9-3, 1.92 ERA, 32 Saves, 4.8 WAR
  6.  Rollie Fingers 1981
  1. 6-3, 1.04 ERA, 28 Saves, 4.2 WAR
  7. Vida Blue 1971
  1.  24-8, 1.82 ERA, 9.0 WAR
  8. Bob Gibson 1968
  1. 22-9, 1.12 ERA, 11.2 WAR

  
  

  

  Bob Gibson, a deserving MVP

  
  
  

  1. Denny McLain 1968
  1. 31-6, 1.96 ERA, 7.4 WAR
  2.  Sandy Koufax 1963
  1.  25-5, 1.88 ERA, 10.7 WAR
  3.  Don Newcomb 1956
  1. 27-7, 3.06 ERA, 4.5 WAR
  4.  Bobby Shantz 1952
  1. 24-7, 2.48 ERA, 9.1 WAR
  5. Jim Konstanty 1950
  1. 16-7, 2.66 ERA, 22 Saves, 4.7 WAR

• So these MVP-winning pitchers fall into 3 distinct categories:
  • 1: Dominant pitchers during historically pitching-dominated eras (Koufax, McClain, Gibson, Blue, Verlander, Kershaw)
  • 2: Great pitchers in seasons without a dominant hitter (Clemens, Shantz, Fingers, Eckersly). Clemens and Shantz were the deserving winners in their years. When Rollie Fingers won he wasn't anywhere near the best player, but it was a weird strike season where teams only played about 105 games each and the best players by WAR in the AL were Dwight Evens (6.6), Rickey Henderson (6.6), and Buddy Bell (6.2). Since there was no great candidate, they gave it to the dominant closer with the cool name and cooler mustache who played on the league's best team. 1992 was a year with several dominant pitchers, with the American League's top three players by WAR being Clemens (8.8), Mike Mussina (8.2), and Luke Appier (8.1). So the MVP should have gone to one of those three, but there wasn't any great hitter in the American League that year to win the award.

    

    Rollie Fingers

    
    
  • 3: They were sick of giving it to the same couple players every year:
    • This is just a guess, but I think it explains Konstanty, Newcomb, and Hernandez. When Konstanty won in 1950, Jackie Robinson had won the previous year and Stan Musial had won 2 of the past 5. In 1956, Roy Campanella had won 3 of the last 5 and Willie Mays had won the previous year. In 1984 Cal Ripken deserved to win but had won it the previous year.
• Of all of these, Hernandez's win is still the hardest to explain. There was an absolutely dominant position player that year in Cal Ripken. Hernandez's team was the best in the league, but he was not their best player; Trammell, Chet Lemon, and Kirk Gibson finished with a higher WAR than he did, and Hall of Famer Lou Whittaker was not far behind. He certainly wasn't as valuable as Stieb or Blyleven. Even if you consider saves as an important statistical category, he was behind Bruce Sutter, Dan Quisenberry, Bill Caudill, and Lee Smith in total saves that year. He doesn't even really compare to the other two times a relief pitcher won the MVP. Relievers generally are not valuable enough to win MVP awards, since they do not affect the game anywhere near as much as a starter or an every-day player. For both of the other relievers who won MVP it was a bit of a career achievement award in years without a dominant hitter. When Eckersly won he was an 18-year vet who was already a sure-thing Hall of Famer, Fingers was a 13-year vet and also a guaranteed HOFer. When Hernandez won he was in the middle of a career that would mostly be spent as a pretty good middle reliever; his 4.8 WAR was an outlier in a career where his second best season was 3.2 WAR and his career average (including the 4.8) was 1.3 WAR per year. Without that season, his career is basically the same as former Phillies reliever Ryan Madson's (Madson averaged 1.1 WAR/season over 8 years, mostly as a middle reliever; removing his best year, Hernandez would have averaged 1.0 WAR/year over 12 seasons mostly as a middle reliever).

  

  The Ryan Madson card that came in the Phillies team pack I bought in 2006; great card but who knew he would go on to have a career as good as a guy who won both an MVP and a Cy Young?

  
  
• While he had a pretty good season in 1984, Willie Hernandez is almost certainly the worst player to ever win the MVP (and possibly the Cy Young) award. Cal Ripken should have been a no-brainier to win the AL MVP that year, and either Dave Stieb or Bert Blyleven should have taken home the Cy Young. Although the MVP and Cy Young awards, especially in that era, were pretty subjective and not always based on real evidence, they are still important and should go to the best player.Willie Hernandez was nowhere near the best player, and for that reason his 1984 American League MVP is the most inexplicable MVP award in MLB history.

Dombrowski of the week: Bartolo Colon for prospects Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore

Dave Dombrowski

• Baseball teams make horrible trades all the time. The master of these trades is current Detroit Tigers general manager, president, and CEO  Dave Dombrowski (he was also the GM of the Marlins and Expos back when they were good). During his time in Detroit, he has made several absolutely unbelievably lopsided trades in his favor, including trading Jeff Weaver for Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman, trading low-level pitchers Juan Gonzalez and Ramon Santiago for Carlos Guillen, and fleecing the Phillies by giving them Ramon Martinez and future Venezuelan prisoner Ugueth Urbina for Placido Polanco. You could also include the times he gave the Marlins a bunch of prospects who amounted to basically nothing for Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Or when he gave up an aging Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a package that included Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson. Basically, no one should ever trade with Dave Dombrowski. In honor of Dombrowski's mastery of the art of trading, I am naming this column where I discuss some of the most lopsided trades in MLB history Dombrowski of the Week. This week: the 2002 trade that sent Bartolo Colon to the Expos for half a season for Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore; all of whom had yet to be called up to the major leagues.
  

  

  Bartolo Colon, 12 years and about 100 pounds ago

  
  
• The first thing that should be noted: The trade made some sense at the time. The Expos in 2002 were a very talented team that believed that they could make the playoffs with the addition of an ace pitcher. They already had several star players, including Jose Vidro, Orlando Cabrera, Javier Vasquez, and Vlad Guerrerro (who put up 7.0 WAR and finished 4^th in NL MVP voting that year), who were all between the ages of 25-27. To go along with that, Colon (along with being an all-time Fat Athlete All-Star with such greats as Vince Wilfork, Big Baby Davis, and Jared Lorenzen) was a very good player. He finished the 2002 season with a 20-8 record as well as 147 ERA+ and 7.1 WAR, both significantly higher than his Cy Young-winning season in 2005. If all had worked out for the Expos, he could have been the missing piece on a contender. However, things did not work out. The Expos finished 83-79, Colon went to the White Sox the next season and won the Cy Young with the Angels in 2005, Guerrerro went to the Angels in 2004 and immediately won the MVP award, and in 2005 the Expos ditched Montreal to become the Washington Nationals.
• The second thing to be noted: The Indians did not really maximize their end of the deal, because they are a Cleveland sports team and therefore cannot do anything right. Phillips only played one 100 game season in his four years in Cleveland, and totaled -.4 WAR during his time there. Then in 2006, when Phillips was 25, he was traded to the Reds, where he has been their starting second baseman for 9 straight seasons, made 3 All-Star games, won 4 Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger, and averaged 2.9 WAR/season during his time in Cincinnati (3.7 from age 26-31, his best years). From 2006-2011 the Indians had four different starting second basemen who combined for 4.7 total WAR over those six seasons. Phillips put up 18.3 WAR during that same period.
  
  

  

  Brandon Phillips

• For the most part the Indians did get the most out of Lee and Sizemore. Lee stayed with the Indians for his first eight seasons, winning the Cy Young award in his final full season there in 2008, although his two best seasons by WAR came later while he was on the Phillies. Sizemore stayed on the Indians for eight seasons, first coming up in 2004 and put up four all star level seasons before injuries limited him. 
  
  
  
  

  

  Phillies legend Cliff Lee (he might have also played on Cleveland for a while)

  
  

  
  

   

  

  Indians legend Grady Sizemore (he might currently be playing on the Phillies)

•  So just for the sake of argument, lets say that Phillips was never traded but Lee, Sizemore, and Colon had the same career results. Just how lopsided is this trade?

Team	Player	Seasons	Total WAR
Expos	Bartolo Colon	0.5	2.4
Indians	Grady Sizemore	8	27.5
Indians	Cliff Lee	8	17.3
Indians (hypothetically)	Brandon Phillips	13	25.6
Indians (reality)	Brandon Phillips	4	-0.4
Expos	Total	0.5	2.4
Indians	Total	20 (29 if they had kept Phillips)	44.4 (70.4 if they had kept Phillips)

• So the Indians traded half a season of Bartolo Colon for 3 future perennial All-stars who were at the time age 21 (Phillips), 23 (Lee), and 19 (Sizemore).. They gave up 2.4 WAR for 44.4, and could have had 70.4 if they hadn't traded Phillips. That is a true lopsided trade.

The Anti-Aging All Stars

Normal human aging makes it so that most baseball players start declining in their early 30s, with the average player's peak years coming somewhere around the ages of 26-32 or so. After that, excluding the steroid era, players normally begin to start slowing down through the combination of injuries and aging, and generally stop being productive by their mid to late 30s. However, some players start getting good right around the time when most players are heading towards retirement. These players are the Anti-Aging stars.

First, some rules:

1. This list is only for players who reached their peak in their mid-30s to 40s, or were not far from it. That does not include players who were still productive at this time, but not at their best. For example, Derek Jeter had a very good run from age 32-35, averaging 4.7 WAR per year and played until age 40, but his best 4-year stretch came from age 24-27 where he averaged 6.3 WAR per year. Same with Ricky Henderson: he played until he was 44, with 2.4 WAR per year from age 35-39, but seeing as he put up 7.0 WAR/year from age 21-33, that obviously wasn't him at his best.
2. The list does not include players who have been accused of steroid use, such as Barry Bonds. Bonds had the greatest 4-year run by any player ever from age 36-39, winning 4 consecutive MVPs, averaging 10.8 WAR/year, and somehow having an average season of .349/.559/.809, with 52 HR, 28 2B, 2 3B and 9 SB. Also during this time he was walked a total of 755 times and struck out only 239 times. He was so damn good that his 43.4 total WAR during that stretch would make him 25^th all time in Career WAR by a left fielder if you took away his other 18 seasons. Obviously, he is the greatest player ever, and that is the best 4-year run by any player ever. However, this list is for players who did not have the artificial-aging help of PEDs.

So with that said, here is the team:

Catcher:

• Carlton Fisk
  • One of very few to play in 4 different decades. His first at-bat came in 1969, and his final came in 1993. He only played for two teams, the Red and White Sox. His longevity was remarkable. His peak came from age 24-30, where he averaged 4.9 WAR/year, despite missing most of his age 26 and 27 seasons. His WAR/650 plate appearances was an excellent 7.0. Then, after he went to the White Sox at 33, he just kept being good. Despite playing the most demanding position in the game, he remained an all-star level player into his early 40s. From age 33-43 he averaged 2.5 WAR/year (4.1/650 PA). But if you take out an outlier season at age 38 with -1.7 WAR (his only negative-WAR season where he played more than 25 games), that improves to 3.1 WAR/season. He also hit a career high in home runs at age 37 (he homered his age with 37 dingers), his only 30+ home run season. Even his speed didn't decline, as he recorded a career-high 17 steals at 34 and then matched that  again at 37. 

    

    Carlton Fisk

    
    

    
    

First Base:

• Darell Evens
  • Evens was a pretty good player in his 20s, with 9.0 and 7.2 WAR seasons at age 26 and 27, leading the league in walks both years. He also hit 41 home runs in his age 26 season, a career high. From age 24-35 he averaged .261/.364/.420 with 3.5 WAR, 19 HR, 18 2B, and a very good 86-70 walks-strikeout rate. That's pretty good, but if you take out his age 26 and 27 seasons that drops to .249/.358/.407 with 2.5 WAR, 17 HR, 18 2B, and a 79-65 BB-SO rate. Still decent, but obviously not the same level. But then from 36-40 he had 3 of his 5 best seasons by WAR (other than the 26 and 27 seasons), averaging 3.5 WAR per year. He had a .262/.365/.476 line, with 30 HR, 18 2B, and an 87-85 BB-SO rate. He even led the league with 40 HR in 1985 at age 38. Up to age 35, he seemed to have a pretty typical aging curve, peaking at age 26-27 and then slowing down as he entered his mid-30s. But then he started trending upwards again with a great 5-year run before he finally hit his decline at age 41 and then retired at 42 years old.
    
    
    
    

    

    Darell Evens

    
    

Second Base:

• Mark Grudzielanek
  • Second base is not a position that tends to age well. The majority of second basemen are low-power guys who rely on speed and reaction time, traits that tend to decline fairly quickly. But Grudzielanek is an exception. He actually had his best 4-year stretch from age 35-38, with 3.1 WAR/season. He had only had one 3+ WAR season before he turned 35. He had always been an above-average player, but he did not hit his peak until he was 33. From age 33-38 he hit over .290 every year, and slugged over .400 every year as well (OK, he only had a .399 slg at 38, but I am including it). He had only topped a .290 avg twice and a .400 slg once in his career before that. He also really stepped up his defense during this time. He averaged 1.4 dWAR from 35-38, including a career high 2.7 dWAR season at age 35, and he won a gold glove in 2006 at age 36. Before that, his career dWAR seasonal average was 0.3 with a high of 1.3.
    
    

    

    Mark Grudzielanek

    
    

Third Base

• Chipper Jones
  • Chipper Jones had always been good. By the time he was 34 he already had 60.1 career WAR and 357 career home runs, which if he had retired at 34 would have put him at 14^th and 9^th respectively all time among 3^rd basemen. He was the first overall pick in the 1990 draft, played his first full season at 23 and averaged 5.9 WAR/year from age 24-30. After that, he seemed to be aging normally as he averaged 4.0 WAR from age 31-34. But then, at age 35 and 36 he put up his two best career seasons by WAR, with 7.6 in 2007 at age 35, and 7.3 in 2008. He hit a career-best 42 doubles at 35, and his 35 and 36 year old seasons were his two best by both batting average and on-base percentage. He began to decline after that, but remained a productive player until his retirement in 2012 at age 40. He averaged 2.5 WAR/year from ages 37-40, never dropping below 2.3 WAR even in his 95 game age 38 season. 

    

    Chipper Jones

    
    

Shortstop

• Ozzie Smith
  • Ozzie Smith could not hit until he turned 30. His career highs in batting average and OBP in his 20s were .257 and .347, both coming at age 29. His career highs in batting average and OBP in his 30s were .303 and .392, both at age 32. For a quick comparison:
    

    • Average hitting season in his 20s: 

    • .238/.311/.298. 
    • Average season from age 30-38:
    •  .281/.358/.350

    
    That is a radical difference. He still managed 3.5 WAR/year in his 20s because of his historically amazing defense and base running, but his WAR improved to 5.4/year in his 30s after he learned how to hit. He made the all-star team 4 times in his 20s, 8 in his 30s, and twice in his 40s. 

    

    Ozzie Smith and his signature back flip

Right field

• Tony Gwynn
  • Tony Gwynn didn't peak in his 30s; his best years, like most players', came from age 24-27. However, unlike most players, Tony Gwynn never stopped being good. His average season from age 34-37 had him batting .371 with 26 doubles and 10 homers. His defense, speed, and power declined a bit as he aged, but his career highs in batting average (.394, age 34), doubles (49, age 37), hits (220, age 37) OBP (.454, age 34), and SLG (.568, age 34), all came in his mid 30s.

    

    Tony Gwynn

    
    

Center Field

• Willie Mays
  • Willie Mays was so damn good that his career-low single season WAR from age 23-35 was 7.6, when he was 28. 7.6 is still MVP-level high. He started declining after a 9 WAR season at age 35, but from age 36-40 he still averaged 5.0 WAR/year with a .280/.377/.474, 21 HR, 20 2B, 3 3B, 10 steal stat line. As he lost athleticism, his other qualities improved; he set career-best marks in OBP (.425) and walks (112) at age 40. 

    

    Willie Mays

    
    

Left Field

• Tony Phillips
  • During his 20s, Tony Phillips was a speedy, light-hitting utility player who got most of his value from defense and base running. Then, in the 90s, as he entered his mid-30s, he started cranking out double-digit home run, 20+double, 100 walk seasons... wait a minute...
    
    

    

    Phillips in 1989 (30 years old, 4 HR, 15 2B)

Phillips in 1995 (36 years old, 27 Hr, 21 2B)

• Ok, he might have been on the juice.

Left field: part 2

• Raul Ibanez
  • Ibanez kind of sucked in his 20s. He never played 100 games in a season until he was 29, and he put up only 1.1 WAR that year. From age 27-29 he averaged .261/.328/.433, with 8 HR, 9 2B, and 2 3B per year. From 30-36 that went up to .292/.352/.481, 22 HR, 35 2B, and 4 3B. From 37-41 (his 3 years on the Phillies, plus one year each on the Yankees and Mariners) he dropped a bit, but was still a good hitter, with a .256/.321/.470, 24 HR, 28 2B, 3 3B stat line. 

    

    Raul Ibanez

    
    

Pitcher

• Jamie Moyer
  • Who else could it be? The captain of the anti-aging all stars, using his absolute mastery of the art of pitching to make up for his 80 MPH (at best) fastball. Moyer didn't age because his game did not rely on throwing hard fastballs or insane breaking stuff. He just kept hitters off balance, changing speed and break and using his pinpoint accuracy. Along with Carlton Fisk, he is one of two players on the anti-aging all stars to play in 4 different decades. He was called up in 1986 at age 23, but from 23-29 he only had one good season, his age 25 year when he went 9-15, 3.48 ERA, 105 ERA+, and 3.4 WAR. At 24 he led the league in earned runs allowed, from 26-28 he never had a positive WAR season, and he didn't even play in the major leagues at 29. He came back at age 30 and had three good years for the Orioles, averaging 2.0 WAR/year from age 30-33. Then he was traded to the Mariners and suddenly became an ace. From 34-40 he averaged 4.2 WAR/year (that becomes 5.0 if you remove an outlier -.1 in 2000). His average season during his Mariners career was 16-8 with 119 ERA+. He had another couple of productive seasons for the Mariners at age 41 and 42 before being traded to the Phillies at 43. For the entirety of his Phillies career, he remained a solid mid-rotation starter, with an average season of 12-10, 97 ERA+, and 1.1 WAR, to go along with winning a World Series ring in his hometown Philadelphia. For most players, remaining productive through their 30s is remarkable. Jamie Moyer was a star in his late 30s, and productive through his late 40s.

Jamie Moyer

Why Chase Utley is One of the Greatest Baseball Players of All Time

Chase Utley, with one of the most perfect swings the league has ever seen

          In my opinion, the greatest stat in baseball is wins above replacement. The point of baseball is to win games, so the best way to measure greatness in a player is to see how much they contribute to winning games. If WAR is the best indicator of how great a player is, then Chase Utley (who is still an all-star level player, and should be for at least the next two or three years) is one of the greatest to ever play.

          It is difficult to measure Utley's career impact in traditional counting stats for two reasons: 1: he was not called up for a full season in the majors until he was 26, due to the Phillies already having a very good second baseman in Placido Polanco (who was second only to Utley in WAR by a second basemen in the 2000-2009 decade), and 2: he missed significant time in three of his prime seasons due to injuries. However, despite his relatively short career so far, he still stacks up pretty well next to other second basemen in career stats. In terms of counting stats, he has hit 228 home runs, 10^th all time among second basemen, has a career .285/.370/.488 line through 12 seasons, and has over 1500 hits, 300 doubles, and 130 steals. He has 61.5 career WAR, good for 97^th all time, 13^th among second basemen. That's pretty good. But when you consider that he has only seven seasons in which he has played 130 or more games, that becomes downright astonishing. Measuring career WAR per career games played, he is among the all time greats. Out of the top 200 leaders in career WAR, Utley measures 22^nd all time in WAR per games played (10th since integration in 1947). Whatever anyone thinks of WAR, there are no outliers on this list. Everybody above Utley is currently in the Hall of Fame or is Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, or Albert Pujols. In fact,  of the top 75, there are only 19 (including Utley) who are not current Hall of Famers, and of those 10 are not eligible yet.

          So based on WAR, Chase Utley through his first 12 seasons is a Hall of Fame level player. But based on his 5-year injury free peak (2005-2009, ages 26-30) he is one of the absolute best players ever. Utley is 13^th all time in WAR by a player in their age 26-30 seasons. He is 6^th among infielders, and second among second basemen (only trailing Rogers Hornsby, who played almost 100 years ago). Here is the list of players #10-20 in WAR ages 26-30. Every single player other than Utley is a top-tier Hall of Famer

• Barry Bonds
• Wade Boggs
• Mike Schmidt
• Chase Utley 
• Eddie Collins 
• Duke Snider
• Tris Speaker
• Alex Rodriguez
• Ernie Banks
• Ted Williams
• Mickey Mantle

       In Utley's 5-year peak he averaged 301/388/535, with 29 HR, 39 2B, 5 3B, 15 SB, and 7.9 WAR per year. I put together this list that shows the best 5-year stretches by any second baseman since integration in 1947, ranked by WAR:

1. Joe Morgan 1972-1976:
   1. 303/431/499, 22 HR, 29 2B, 4 3B, 62 SB, 9.5 WAR
2. Jackie Robinson 1949-1953
   1. 329/430/505, 16 HR, 32 2B, 7 3B, 29 SB, 8.4 WAR
3. Chase Utley, 2005-2009:
   1. 301/388/535, 29 HR, 39 2B, 5 3B, 15 SB, 7.9 WAR
4. Robinson Cano 2010-2014
   1. 312/375/518, 26 HR, 43 2b, 3 3B, 6 SB, 7.2 WAR
5. Bobby Grich 1972-1976
   1. 263/374/410, 14 HR, 27 2B, 5 3B, 15 SB, 7.0 WAR
6. Ryne Sandberg 1988-1992
   1. 291/357/494, 28 HR, 28 2B, 5 3B, 21 SB, 6.5 WAR
7. Ben Zobrist 2009-2013
   1. 269/366/446, 18 HR, 35 2B, 5 3B, 17 SB, 6.5 WAR
8. Craig Biggio 1994-1998
   1. 308/404/477, 17 HR, 37 2B, 4 3b, 39 sb, 6.4 WAR
9. Dustin Pedroia 2008-2012
   1. 303/371/470, 16 HR, 40 2B, 2 3B, 19 SB, 5.7 WAR
10. (Tie)
    1. Roberto Alomar 1997-2001
       1. 316/391/492, 18 HR, 35 2B, 4 3B, 27 SB, 5.5 WAR
    2. Jeff Kent 1998-2002
       1. 307/378/548, 29 HR, 42 2B, 4 3B, 9 SB, 5.5 WAR

          So that 5-year stretch is the third best by a second baseman ever, only behind Joe Morgan, who is popularly acknowledged as the greatest second baseman of all time, and Jackie Robinson, another all-time great. To show how insane it is that he averaged 7.9 WAR per season over a 5-year period, these current Hall of Famers never once in their careers had a single season with 7.9 WAR or higher: Richie Ashburn, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, Yogi Berra, Lou Brock, Roy Campanella, Orlando Cepeda, Bobby Doerr, Carlton Fisk, Hank Greenberg, Harmon Killebrew, Barry Larkin, Eddie Murray, Tony Perez, Kirby Puckett, Jim Rice, Phil Rizzuto, and Frank Thomas. These are all baseball legends, deserving Hall of Famers, who never had a season as good as Chase Utley's average for 5 years.

Utley never won a Gold Glove, but he is 10th in career defensive WAR among second basemen, and third among all active players

               During Utley's peak from 2005-2009, he was the best player on a dominant Phillies team that won the NL East three times and went to the World Series twice, winning once. He finished top five in the league in WAR every single year, made 4 All Star teams, and won the Silver Slugger 4 times. However, he was often overshadowed by his outstanding teammates. In 2006 Utley hit .309/.379/.527, 32 HR, 40 2B, 4 3B, 15 steals, led the NL with 131 runs scored, and put up 7.3 WAR. But Ryan Howard had one of the greatest power hitting seasons ever, batting .313/.425/.659, leading the MLB with 58 home runs and 149 RBI and won the MVP. The next year Utley was even better, hitting .332/.410/.566, with 22 HR, 48 2B, 5 3B, 9 Sb, and 7.8 WAR. He also led the league in hit by pitches for the first time, which he would repeat for three straight years (he is 11^th all time in total career HBP). But once again one of his brilliant fellow Phillie infielders won the MVP, this time Jimmy Rollins, with a legendary season where he hit .296/.344/.531, 30 HR, 38 2B, 20 3B, and 41 steals while also winning the Gold Glove at shortstop and being the vocal leader of the Phillies. Utley's two best seasons came in the Phillies' two World Series years in 2008 and 2009, where his combined average season was.287/.388/.522, 32 HR, 34 2B, 4 3B, and 18 SB with 8.6 WAR. But there was no chance of him winning the MVP (or deserving to) during those years with one of the greatest players ever, Albert Pujols in his prime at the same time in the same league.

          Because the Phillies only won the World Series once, Utley is often forgotten as one of the greatest postseason players ever. He is possibly the best home run hitter in the history of the World Series. This is the list of all the players with more World Series home runs than him: Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Yogi Berra, Duke Snider, Lou Gehrig, Reggie Jackson, Joe DiMaggio, Bill Skowron, and Frank Robinson. He is tied with Gil McDougald, Hank Bauer, and Goose Goslin. As with most things in Utley's career, this stat is actually much more impressive than it appears to be. Of all the players on this list, Chase Utley had the fewest plate appearances with 49. The next fewest is Frank Robinson with 106. Utley had less than half the total plate appearances of any other player on that list! Rearranging this list to see who had the most home runs per plate appearance on that list, the order looks a bit different:

1. Utley: .14
2. Ruth: .09
3. Jackson: .09
4. Robinson: .08
5. Mantle, .07
6. Snider: .07
7. Gehrig: .07
8. Skowron: .06
9. Goslin: .05
10. Berra: .04
11. DiMaggio: .04
12. Bauer: .04
13. McDougald: .03  

            Chase Utley hit a home run on 14% of his career world series plate appearances. The next best (Mr. October himself and Babe freaking Ruth) only managed to do so on 9% of theirs. Utley's 5 home runs in the 2009 World Series is tied with Reggie Jackson in 1977 for the most ever in a world series. But because the Phillies lost to the Yankees that year Utley is not remembered quite as highly as he should be in the postseason.

    

            It seems likely that Chase Utley will play another 3-5 years at a high level (since his first full season in 2005, he has had at least 3 WAR every year, even in his 83 game 2012). If he does so he should be an obvious Hall of Fame player. Some could say his years missed due to injury is an issue, however he still has had as many great seasons as almost anyone. There are only 40 players ever with 4 or more seasons with 7 or higher WAR. Utley had 5, making tied for 19^th all time with Frank Robinson, Joe Morgan, Mickey Mantle, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Charlie Gehringer, and Joe DiMaggio. Of the 29 other players to have at least 5 such seasons, only Barry Bonds (the all time leader with 14), Alex Rodriguez (9), Albert Pujols (8), Shoeless Joe (5), and Utley are not currently in the Hall of Fame. Of the players with 4 seasons, only Adrian Beltre, Jeff Bagwell, and Ken Griffey Jr. are not in the HOF (yet). So basically the members of the 5 7+ WAR club include 24 of the very top Hall of Fame hitters, 2 guys who would be in except for scandals (Bonds and Shoeless Joe), and 3 active players: Pujols, who will be in the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible; ARod, who is another obvious future Hall of Famer except for a PED scandal, and Chase Utley. Utley has had a criminally underrated career, but in the end, he should be remembered as one of the absolute greatest players of all time.

All statistics in this article are from Baseball-Reference.com