Monday, February 2, 2015

What Could Have Been: The Potentially Great Baseball Career of Deion Saunders



A young, jheri-curled Prime Time
    • Just to clarify: Deion Sanders is one of the greatest football players of all time. He was possibly the most versatile player who ever played in the NFL. He is 24th all time in career interceptions, tied for 30th in career kick return touchdowns, and tied for 8th in career punt return touchdowns. He was an incredible athlete who could be the best cornerback and the best kick and punt returner in the league most years while also playing receiver. Because of that incredible athletic ability he was able to play in the MLB at a fairly high level at the same time that he was in the NFL. Just the fact that he was good enough to play both sports at the highest level at the same time is incredible. There have been several people who have tried to play both at the same time. Most have been much closer to the University of Washington's All-American linebacker Shaq Thompson (who played 13 games on the GCL Red Sox minor league team and had a spectacular stat line of zero hits, 8 walks, and 37 strikeouts) than they have been to Sanders. Tom Brady, Michael Vick, and Russell Wilson were all drafted by MLB teams; none of them attempted to play both football and baseball at the same time. It is insane to think that someone could manage to play both sports at a high level at the same time. The amount of practice needed to maintain that high of a skill level in either baseball or football should be more than a full time job. However, Deion Sanders was able to be an above-average baseball player and a Hall of Fame football player at the same time. He played both sports, but his focus was clearly on football, which was obviously a good decision for him. But just for curiosity's sake, how good could he have been if he had focused all of his efforts on baseball?
      On the super-bowl winning 1994 49ers

      Saunder's 1992 Upper Deck card showing him playing both sports

    • The first thing to look at is what he actually did in his MLB career. In total, he played in 9 different seasons, with his highest single season game total coming in 1997 when he played 115 games. Despite never playing a full season, he still did some pretty impressive things. He led the league in triples in 1992 with 14 even though he only played 97 games. He finished 4th in the league in stolen bases in the strike season 1994 and finished 5th in steals in his career high 115 game 1997. These seasons showed flashes of his immense potential. 

    • The next step is to round up his actual stats to full seasons. So for example, in 1994 he played 92 games, so I multiplied all of his stats by 1.5 which would be the equivalent of a 138 game season. I then kept the home runs, doubles, triples, and steals as whatever they multiplied to but I assumed that with extra focus on baseball he would be able to add 20 points to his batting average and 30 points to his OBP each year. I also assumed, due to his ability as a cornerback, that he would be worth an average of 1.0 dWAR each year in center field due to the extra focus on baseball. I then assumed that he would be able to play from ages 22-37 (the same as his NFL career), would play every season, and would have a normal level of decline in his mid-30s. For the seasons that he did not play baseball in (his age 28, 30, 31, 32, 34, 35, 36, and 37 years) I just took the average of the three previous seasons and plugged them in, and then took an average level of decline as he entered his mid 30s.
    • So in the entirely hypothetical scenario I laid out, here is Deion Sanders' new MLB career:
Year Age Games AVG OBP HR 2B 3B SB WAR
1990 22 114 178 296 6 2 2 16 1.3
1991 23 108 211 300 8 2 4 22 1
1992 24 145 324 386 12 9 21 39 6.8
1993 25 142 296 351 9 27 9 29 5
1994 26 138 303 372 6 26 6 57 4
1995 27 128 288 357 9 17 12 36 4
1996 28 139 295 363 7 20 9 55 3.7
1997 29 150 293 359 7 17 9 73 3.1
1998 30 139 292 360 8 18 10 55 3.6
1999 31 139 292 360 8 18 10 55 3.6
2000 32 139 292 360 8 18 10 55 3.6
2001 33 130 287 350 7 17 8 45 3.1
2002 34 130 282 340 6 16 6 35 2.6
2003 35 130 277 330 5 15 4 25 2.1
2004 36 120 272 320 4 14 2 15 1.7
2005 37 110 267 310 3 13 0 5 1.1










Career Totals:

278 345 113 249 122 617 50.3
      
      With these rounded-up stats, Prime Time would have probably been a multi-time All Star, would have been 13th all time in career stolen bases, and would have had more steals than anyone in the 1990-2005 period. He would also have finished 12th in career triples by anyone since 1950. This scenario would have led to him finishing his career as a not-quite hall of famer but very good player; he would have comparable stats to players like Willie Wilson and Kenny Lofton. I believe that my estimates were probably fairly conservative; with a full time focus on baseball his natural athleticism would probably allow him to be an all time great. But even just very simply rounding his stats up to what he would have had if he played full seasons at the same level that he did in reality shows a very good player. He probably wouldn't have had as great a career as he did in football, but it is amazing how great he could have been at his second-best sport.

Also, since the 90s were an incredible time to be a sports fan, here is Deion Sanders in a dunk competition against Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Conley's dad:




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