Masters of “Little Stats” and Baseball IQ: Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino

       In Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, he said that Joe Morgan was the “greatest percentage player in baseball history.” He based this on a stat he called Percentage Player Index (or PPI, as I will refer to it), which he had created as a way to measure baseball IQ. The stats he used were:

• Fielding Percentage
• Stolen Base Percentage
• Strikeout To Walk Ratio
• Walk Frequency

  

  Joe Morgan: Incredibly smart player, incredibly stupid broadcaster

  
  

       He combined these stats, rated players in them compared to the average player in their era, and found that Joe Morgan was, according to that statistic, the most intelligent player ever. Fielding percentage is a little-used statistic nowadays, but it is a good indicator of a player's defensive instincts and positioning. When describing Jackie Robinson, James said:

• “'Is it not possible, I wonder, that Jackie's intelligence created benefits for his team that only show up in the statistics?.... if an infielder makes a diving stop of a line drive, he wins recognition as a defensive wizard. But if he anticipates the play, and moves two steps to his left before the ball is hit, it's a routine play, and nobody notices it....Isn't it possible that Jackie just anticipated the play more than anyone else did?”

Jackie Robinson didn't make very many spectacular defensive plays, but he had great defensive value due to his intelligence and ability to always be in the right position

     Stolen base percentage is a way to show good judgment and anticipation. There is an art to base stealing beyond just being fast; obviously you need speed, but it is also a matter of deceiving the pitcher and catcher by taking a lead short enough for them not to react but long enough to be able to reach the base in time, as well as jumping off at the exact instant the pitcher begins his windup in order to have enough time to reach the base. Raw speed isn't enough; BJ Upton is one of the fastest players in the league, but his career stolen base percentage is only 77%. Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders may have been the two fastest men to ever play in the MLB, but their steal percentages are only 72 (Jackson) and 75 (Sanders). Taking a lot of walks and very few strikeouts is the ultimate sign of a high baseball IQ. It shows patience and an unwillingness to swing at pitches that can't be hit. The walk is one of the only plays in baseball that relies almost purely on intelligence rather than athleticism.

           Three more measures that often don't stick out on a stat sheet but are great indicators of how effective a player is are what James calls “little stats:” Double plays grounded into (GIDP), sacrifice flies, and hit by pitches (HBP). Sacrifice flies are the best possible way a hitter can get out, and double plays are the worst. Hit by pitches are the ultimate sacrifice play; the hitter has to be willing to lean into a 90 mile per hour pitch just to get to first base. All of these stats show players positively effecting the game without really showing up on a player's main conventional stats. Craig Biggio was a master of these little stats; in 1997 he was hit by 34 pitches while grounding into zero double plays. The 34 hit by pitches were the third most in a single season since 1900, and he was the fifth player ever to go a full season without ever grounding into a double play.

Craig Biggio was a master at doing the little things

        The Phillies were a dominant team in the late 2000s and early 10's. One of the many reasons for this is that their lineup was absolutely stacked with players who were historically great in these little stats that indicate intelligence, hustle, and a team-first mentality. The most notable of these were Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Ruiz.

         Second basemen who have the ability to hit .330 and over 30 home runs are incredibly rare; in fact, only 5 second basemen since 1950 (including Utley) have ever had a .330+ batting average and over 20 home runs in a season (it is hard to compare modern stats to those before the second half of the 20^th century; players used to have seasons like Rogers Hornsby's 1922 where he hit .401 with 42 homers). Only 14 second basemen since 1950 have had even one season with over 30 homers; Utley has hit that mark three times. By any measure Utley is among the best hitting second basemen of all time, but his true greatness lies in his baseball IQ and hustle. 

              Utley is outstanding historically in all of the PPI and little stats. The average walk/strikeout ratio by a hitter in 2014 is somewhere around .415. Over his career, Utley's BB/K is .653 (603 walks to 923 strikeouts), almost 250 points higher than the average. This doesn't compare well to the PPI king Joe Morgan and his outrageous 1.84 ratio, but Morgan played in an era with a lot more walks and less strikeouts. Here is a quick comparison:

Year	1974	2014
Players with at least 100 BB	8	2
League leader in BB	126, Darell Evans	113, Carlos Santana
Players with at least 100 strikeouts	20	117
League leader in strikeouts	138, Mike Schmidt	190, Ryan Howard

           Seeing as the MLB leader in strikeouts 40 years ago would finish tied for 28^th in 2014 and there were almost six times as many players with at least 100 strikeouts, I think that I can safely say comparing that statistic across eras is almost meaningless.

          While Utley is only really great relative to his era on BB/K, he is among the best ever at stolen base %, HBP, and GIDP. Among all players in MLB history with at least 100 career stolen base attempts, Utley is first in stolen base percentage at 88.5%. He is 16^th all time in career HBPs, and has been hit 169 times in his career, 36 times more than any active player other than Alex Rodriguez (who has also been hit 169 times, but has played in over 1000 more games than Utley). Since 2005 (his first full season), Utley has hit into the 5^th fewest double plays of any player who has played at least 1300 games in that period (meaning an average of 130 games per year). He also has a career fielding percentage of .987, which compares favorably to Morgan's .981, although he plays in an era of much higher average fielding percentages.

No one has ever been more efficient at stealing bases than Utley

Utley has been hit by 169 pitches in his career

          While Utley is absolutely incredible across the board on PPI and little stats, he is not the only Phillie from that era to put up incredible numbers. Remember how he was first all time in SB% among all players in MLB history with at least 100 career stolen base attempts? Jayson Werth is third, Shane Victorino is 22^nd, and Jimmy Rollins is 24^th. In 2007, the Phillies had the highest single season team stolen base percentage in MLB history at 87.9%. The likely reason for all of this is that their first base coach from 2007 to 2010 was Davey Lopes, who as a player was 21^st all time (one spot ahead of Victorino) in career stolen base percentage. So 5 of the top 25 players ever in SB% either played or coached for the Phillies between 2007 and 2010. 

Davey Lopes: great base stealer, better first base coach

          Utley's career BB/K ratio of .653 is way above the average for his era, but it isn't much higher than Victorino's .614, and it pales in comparison to Carlos Ruiz's amazing .868. Ruiz has walked more or the same amount of times as he has struck out in four of his seven career 100+ game seasons. From 2006-2011 he actually had a career BB/K ratio of 1.02. Relative to his era, Ruiz is almost unmatched in his ability to not strike out. Since his first full season in 2007, only 5 players who have played at least 900 games in that time have fewer strikeouts than he does.

Ruiz almost never strikes out

      Ruiz was, like Utley, willing to take a lot of HBPs. Since 2007, Ruiz has 65 HBPs, 11^th among all players during that period. Victorino is not far behind him, sitting at 15^th overall with 61. Jayson Werth is 33^rd, with 46. This feels like a good time to mention that Utley was hit 138 times over that period, and no one other than Utley had more than 99 HBPs.
           The other thing that Ruiz excelled at that doesn't really show up in the stats is handling pitchers. This consists of things like pitch framing, calling pitches, and keeping the pitchers calm and happy. There aren't many stats for this, but it can be seen in the stats of the pitchers he has called games for. He has called 4 different no-hitters in his career, 3 in the regular season and 1 in the playoffs, which puts him in a tie for first all time along with Jason Varitek. Pitchers generally improve their performance with Ruiz as their primary catcher. Cliff Lee had already won a Cy Young award in 2008 with the Indians, but his two best seasons by WAR came in 2011 and 2013 with the Phillies. Roy Halladay won the Cy Young in 2003 and was already a likely Hall of Famer when he came to the Phillies, but his two best seasons by WAR also came on the Phillies in 2010 and 2011. With the Astros in 2007 Brad Lidge had 19 saves and a 3.36 ERA. The next year on the Phillies he had a 1.95 ERA and 41 saves and finished 4th in Cy Young and 8th in MVP voting.

           These guys were either given bases on balls or hit by pitches quite a lot, but they also put the ball into play a lot, and when they did good things happened. From 2006-2013, Victorino grounded into 48 double plays, the third fewest of anyone who played at least 1000 games during that time. Meanwhile, he hit 60 sacrifice hits and flies. Victorino, Werth, and Utley are all in the top 15 of fewest GIDPs since 2006 of players who have played at least 1000 games, and since 2005, Utley is 7^th among all players in sac flies, and Ryan Howard is 16^th.

           So the Phillies were incredibly effective at the plate and on the base paths, but what about in the field? If we are basing their defensive intelligence, as James did, on fielding percentage, the Phillies were outstanding. Among active players, Victorino is first among center fielders with a .9962 career fielding percentage. Rollins is second among shortstops, Werth is 6^th among right fielders, Ruiz 6^th among catchers, and Utley is 13^th among second basemen. 

Shane Victorino is a great hitter and one of the best center fielders in the game

       The Phillies' dedication to doing all the little things right led to some incredibly effective seasons, such as:

• Shane Victorino, 2011:
  • Normal Stats: 
    • .279/.355/.491, 17 HR, 27 2B, 16 3B, 19 SB
  • Pretty good, but also consider:
    • He only grounded into 5 double plays
    • He had an 86% stolen base rate (only caught 3 times)
    • He had a .873 BB/K rate (55 BB, 63 K)
• Chase Utley, 2009:
  • Normal Stats:
    • .282/.397/.508, 31 HR, 28 2B, 4 3B, 23 SB
  • Little stats:
    • Grounded into only 5 double plays
    • He was hit by 24 pitches
    • He had a 100% stolen base rate (23 for 23)
    • Had a .800 BB/K rate (88 BB to 110 K)
• Carlos Ruiz, 2010
  • Normal Stats:
    • .302/.400/.447, 8 HR, 28 2B
  • Little Stats:
    • Grounded into only 8 double plays
    • 1.02 BB/K rate (55 BB to 54 K)
    • He caught and called both of Roy Halladay's No-Hitters
• Jayson Werth, 2008
  • Normal stats:
    • .273/.363/.498, 24 HR, 16 2B, 20 SB
  • Little stats:
    • Only hit into 2 double plays in 134 games; the year before he hit into zero in 94 games
    • Had a 95% SB rate; 20 steals in 21 attempts

      

      Werth almost never hit into double plays, was a great base runner, and was very good in the field

     

Werth also may have had the most drastic image makeover of any player in baseball history

          It would be one thing if there were one or two players on a team excelling at these little things, but when a single team has a handful of the best ever at a few statistical categories you have to consider how good the coaching, managing, and player development on the Phillies was. It isn't really possible to teach players to hit 36 homers like Werth did in 2009, or hit 16 triples like Victorino in 2011. 20-20 guys who can hit .300 don't grow on trees, although the Phillies did seem to have a lot of them. What can be taught and coached is taking a lot of walks, never getting thrown out on the base paths, not grounding into double plays, and not making mistakes in the field. These are the things that great teams do that separate them from good teams with a collection of star players.