The Case For a Breakout 2015 from Domonic Brown

   

       A few times each generation, a player is able to make the big leagues in their late teens or early twenties and immediately succeed. Think Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Mel Ott, Ty Cobb, and Mickey Mantle. This particular generation has seen quite a few of these types of players, with Trout being joined by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jason Heyward, and Giancarlo Stanton. These players seem to have made some believe that immediate major league stardom by top prospects is the norm rather than the exception. In reality, only a certain type of player succeeds at that age. They are all way above average in both speed and power, have gold glove defensive tools, and are able to adjust to major league pitching very quickly. When Dom Brown was first called up, he was expected to join this group. In 2011, MLB.com listed Brown as the 4^th best prospect in baseball, behind only Trout, Harper, and Jeremy Hellickson. He was ranked ahead of future stars such as Aroldis Chapman (6), Freddie Freeman (17), Machado (24), Chris Sale (25), and Devin Mesoraco (45) as well as many other solid major leaguers. For a brief period in 2013, Brown appeared to be living up to his immense hype, hitting .291/.325/.612 with 18 homers, 10 doubles, and 3 triples over May and June and making the All Star Game. He then followed that up with only 6 home runs, 8 doubles, and 1 triple over the final 3 months of 2013, and hit only .235/.285/.349 with 10 homers and 22 doubles in 2014. Brown is not, as was once expected of him, a well rounded superstar who would come into immediate MLB success. What is more likely is that his career path will follow that of a different type of star: the power hitter who figures it out and becomes a star in his late 20s. 

Mickey Mantle had already hit 249 career home runs before he turned 27; shockingly, this is not common.

      The most extreme example of this archetype is Jose Bautista. Bautista played his first full season at age 25. In his first four seasons, from ages 25-28, he was a pretty mediocre player. He hit .242 with 15 homers and 22 doubles per season over that period, with highs of 16 homers and 36 doubles. Then in 2010, at age 29, he suddenly hit 54 homers and 35 doubles, and he has hit more home runs than anyone else this decade (by which I mean way more; he has hit 187, Miguel Cabrera is second with 181, third is a tie between Albert Pujols and Giancarlo Stanton at 154).

Jose Bautista came out of nowhere to become the most prolific home run hitter of the 2010s

      A more likely career path for Brown is that of Carlos Pena. In 2001, Baseball America rated Pena as the 11^th best prospect in baseball. He played his first full season at 24, and for his first three seasons he averaged .241 with 21 HR, 20 doubles, and 5 triples per season. Like Brown he showed flashes of his potential. Pena's age 26 season and Brown's age 25 were almost identical; here is a comparison:

• Pena, 2004: .241/.338/.472, 27 HR, 22 2B, 4 triples, 7 steals, 2.8 WAR
• Brown, 2013: .272/.324/.494, 27 HR, 21 2B, 4 triples, 8 steals, 2.1 WAR

Both of them followed that up with a pretty weak season. Pena then hit 46 home runs in 2007 and averaged .236/.366/.505 with 34 HR, 25 doubles, and 4.0 WAR per season from 2007 through 2011. So the career path for both started as top prospects then went into several mediocre seasons with flashes of potential. Pena then became a star; Brown might do so as well.

Carlos Pena was a former top prospect who failed to live up to expectations until his late 20s

        Pena and Bautista are far from the only examples of this. Unlike the 5-tool types listed earlier, players whose main skill is power tend to break out in their late 20s or early 30s. Here are a few more examples:

Player	Age of first full season	Average season pre breakout	Career high home runs pre breakout	Age of breakout and breakout year stats	Career high home runs post breakout
Tino Martinez	24	18 HR, 22 2B, 1.2 WAR	20	27; 31 HR, 35 2B, 4.5 WAR	44
Edwin Encarnacion	23	18 HR, 25 2B, .9 WAR	26	29; . 42 HR, 24 2B, 5.0 WAR	42
Chris Davis	22	11 HR, 15 2B, -.4 WAR	21	26; 33 HR, 20 2B, 1.6 WAR	53
David Ortiz	24	16 HR, 28 2B, 2.5 WAR	20	27; 31 HR, 39 2B, 3.3 WAR	54
Jermaine Dye	22	13 HR, 20 2B, .9 WAR	27	26; . 33 HR, 41 2B, 4.6 WAR	44
Domonic Brown	25	18 HR, 22 2B, .7 WAR	27	?	?

      Although Brown first came up in 2010, he has only actually played two full seasons, and he was an All-Star in one of them. A bad season by a good player in their mid-20s isn't always a good predictor of future performance. His age 25 and 26 seasons were almost identical to Paul Konerko's age 26 and 27 seasons. Here is a comparison:

• Konerko 2002: Hit 27 home runs and was elected to the All Star game on the back of a monster June where he hit .340 with 12 homers; never hit more than 4 home runs in any other month. Finished with 2.1 WAR.
• Brown 2013: Hit 27 home runs and was elected to the All Star game on the back of a monster May where he hit .303 with 12 homers; never hit more than 6 home runs in any other month. Finished with 2.1 WAR.
• Konerko 2003: Hit .234 with 18 homers, 19 doubles, and -.6 WAR.
• Brown 2014: Hit .235 with 10 homers, 22 doubles, and -1.4 WAR.

          Konerko in 2003 was better than Brown in 2014, but not by much. Konerko followed that season up with two consecutive 40 home run seasons, and would go on to hit 310 more homers in his career from age 28 to his retirement at 38. 

White Sox legend Paul Konerko, like Brown, followed up an all star season in his mid 20s with a below-replacement level season. He then played for 11 more years and made 5 more All Star games

     I may just be an optimist. Brown may never reach his full potential; there have certainly been plenty of talented top prospects who for whatever reason never quite make it. There are also a lot of power hitters who struggle through their early to mid 20s and then figure things out and become stars in their late 20s. Brown might never become a 40 home run guy, and even if he does it might not be next year and he might not do it on the Phillies. However, if he does have a big 2015 it would be far from unique. Players almost never reach their power potential in their early 20s. Here are some numbers on home runs and age in recent years:

• Number of players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season since 2005:
  • 57
• Number of players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season since 2005 who were 25 or younger:
  • 13
• Number of players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season since 2005 who were 24 or younger:
  • 4 (Stanton, Trout, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun)

Players like Stanton and Trout are rightfully praised for being so great at such a young age, but most players just aren't physically mature enough to consistently hit home runs in the major leagues in their early 20s. Brown has already shown that he has the power to hit a lot of home runs; in May 2013 he was able to hit 12 in a single month. Brown's main weakness on offense is his plate discipline, a trait that tends to improve with age and experience. A lot of writers and analysts have written Brown off as a terrible player on a hopeless Phillies team after his bad 2014. This seems to me like an incredibly short sighted view. Really, what would be stranger: Brown bouncing back after a bad season and putting up the best season of his career as he enters his late 20s, or a former All Star and top prospect being a complete bust with no hope for the future at 27? Power hitters do not peak when they are 25; aging in baseball almost never works that way. Brown may have already had his best season, but I think that it is much more likely that he will greatly improve over the next few years. 

All stats in this post are from Baseball Reference