Josh Willingham: The Most Underrated Baseball Player of the 21st Century

• Josh Willingham retired after the 2014 season with very little fanfare. He was a backup outfielder and DH on the American League champion Royals, but had only four at at bats in the 2014 postseason. That was the only time he ever made it into the playoffs, and the only award he won in his career was a Silver Slugger in 2012. He was so unremarkable that despite the fact that I have probably watched half of the Phillies games over the past 10 years, I couldn't remember whether or not he ever played in Philadelphia (I was actually thinking of Ty Wigginton in 2012). He was a journeyman who played for 5 teams in his 11 seasons, starting on the Marlins, then moving on to the Nationals, the Twins, the A's, and the Royals. In his 8 career seasons where he played over 100 games he only played on one team with a .500 record (the 2008 Marlins who went 84-78). The teams he played for in those 8 seasons had a combined record of 567-728. On the surface, his career looks pretty average, indistinguishable from other boring guys with a bit of power like Wigginton, Luke Scott, or Kelly Johnson. But when you look at the statistics he put up, Willingham was an extremely efficient and consistent player, and may have been incredibly underrated.
  
  
  
• One of the best ways to measure a player's public perception is all star game appearances. It is based on voting from fans, players, and managers, and while it may not always show who the best players are, it shows who the public believes to be the best players. Willingham never made an all star game. On it's own that isn't especially strange. Most players never make an all star game. However, very few players as productive as Willingham never make it. In his career, Willingham hit 195 home runs, 216 doubles, and 553 walks. Exactly 200 players have hit over 190 homers, 200 doubles, and 500 walks in their careers since the first all star game in 1933. Of those 200, only 17 have never been all stars, and 5 of those 17 (Travis Hafner, Kevin McReynolds, Deron Johnson, Kirk Gibson, and Eric Karros) finished in the top 5 of MVP voting at some point in their careers.
   Since his first full season in 2006, Willingham has hit 20 or more home runs in 5 different seasons. During that time, 47 players have had at least 5 such seasons. Only 3 of those 47 (Willingham, Mark Reynolds, and Adam LaRoche) have never been all stars. His 194 home runs since 2006 put him 30^th  overall in that period, and are comparable to Brian McCann (194), Justin Morneau (193), Josh Hamilton (192), Hanley Ramirez (191), and David Wright (189). Since 2006, he has a .358 OBP, which is 30^th among all players who have played at least 1000 games during that time. Of those 30, only him and David DeJesus have never been all stars.

  

  Since 2006, Justin Morneau has played 1183 games and hit .288/.356/.488 with 193 homers. In that time he has won an MVP award, been to 4 all star games, and won 2 silver sluggers. He hit 34 home runs in 2006, the second most by a Twins player in the 21st century.

  
  

  

  Since 2006, Willingham has played 1147 games and hit .253/.358/.467 with 194 homers. In that time he has won 1 Silver Slugger. He hit 35 home runs in 2012, the most by a Twins player in the 21st century.

• Willingham excelled at doing positive things that aren't especially noticeable. Consistency is a trait that is usually only observed when it is missing. It was very noticeable in 2011 when Ryan Howard hit .266/.370/.550 with 30 home runs against right handed pitchers and then only hit .224/.286/.347 with 3 homers against lefties. It was extremely noticeable when Chris Davis went from hitting .286 with 53 home runs and 42 doubles in 2013 to hitting .196 with 26 homers and 16 doubles in 2014. It isn't quite so noticeable when Willingham puts up freakishly consistent splits over his entire career:
  • Against RHP vs LHP
    • RHP: .254/.355/.457
    • LHP: .248/.368/.486
  • Home vs. away games
    • Home: 554 games, .250/.360/.462, 93 homers, 98 doubles, 279 walks
    • Away: 593 games, .255/.368/.468, 102 homers, 118 doubles, 274 walks
  • Number of outs in inning (he has 1549, 1527, and 1540 career plate appearances respectively at each):
    • 1: .263/.361/.489, 73 HR, 72 doubles, 5 triples, 171 walks
    • 2: .251/.349/.460, 61 HR, 76 doubles, 5 triples, 174 walks
    • 3: .243/.365/.445, 61 HR, 68 doubles, 5 triples, 208 walks
  • Night vs. day games
    • Night: .251/.357/.452
    • Day: .255/.361/.471
• The only split I could find with any noticeable variance was positive: he hit .263/.387/.469 with runners in scoring position and .252/.404/.480 with two outs and runners in scoring position, compared to .246/.344/.466 without RISP. Willingham was like a baseball robot: he would go out and hit with above average power and plate discipline no matter what situation he was in. 
  
  
  
• Just being a remarkably consistent right handed power hitter would make Willingham an exceptional player, but what really set him apart was his excellence in the little stats: hit by pitches and double plays grounded into. His 112 career HBPs are 4^th most by any player since 2005, and his 86 career GIDPs are tied for the 41^st fewest by any player who has played at least 1000 games since 2005. Power hitters with that many HBPs and that few GIDPs are incredibly rare. There have been only 3 players in the history of baseball who have hit over 190 career home runs, been hit by over 100 pitches, and grounded into fewer than 100 double plays: Brady Anderson, Chase Utley, and Josh Willingham. 
  
  
  
• Willingham wasn't a hall of fame player, or among the greats of his generation. He never developed a significant fan base since he never played more than three seasons for any team, and was never a major contributor on a playoff team. Most of the teams that he played for were terrible. But he was, for almost a decade, a quietly effective, all star level player, and he should be remembered as such.