The Great Ryan Howard

     

       Ryan Howard in 2014 was not a particularly good player. Really, he was pretty bad. He led the MLB in strikeouts, hit only .223/.310/.380, with 23 home runs and 18 doubles, and finished the year with -1.1 WAR. Injuries and natural decline due to aging have caused him, along with the Phillies team around him, to become a shadow of their former self. However, his rapid decline and massive contract have caused some to forget about just how good Howard was. In 2006 he was named Rookie of the Year. Then from 2007-2011 he finished in the top ten in National League MVP voting every year for 6 straight seasons, winning once, and going to three All-Star games. He was not some one dimensional slugger like Adam Dunn or Dave Kingman; Howard was a truly dominant player and one of the great power hitters of all time. 

      The job of a cleanup hitter is to bat 4^th, after the team's 3 best on-base guys , and hopefully drive them home to score runs. For the four year period of 2006-2009, Ryan Howard did this better than pretty much anyone ever. The players who hit in front of him during this period were very good at getting on base. From 06-09 Chase Utley had an OBP of .391, Jimmy Rollins' was .330, and Shane Victorino's was .351. Ryan Howard was very good at sending them home. This lineup led the Phillies to finish 4^th, 2^nd, 8^th, and 4^th in the league in runs scored during those years, while winning the NL East every year and going to two World Series. During this 4-year stretch, Howard had 572 RBI, an average of 143 per year. 

      The best possible thing that a baseball player can do to help his team win games is hit home runs. It is very simple. A home run automatically equals at least one run scored, and on a team like the late 2000's Phillies, it usually means more than one run scores. If the goal of baseball is to win games, and games are won by scoring more runs than the other team, then a player who hits a lot of home runs is very valuable. And, for a four year period, Ryan Howard hit more home runs than almost anyone else ever. Here is a list of the most home runs ever hit over a 4 year period:

• Mark McGwire, 1996-1999: 245 HR, 530 RBI
• Sammy Sosa, 1998-2001: 243 HR, 597 RBI
• Barry Bonds 2000-2003: 213 HR, 443 RBI
• Babe Ruth 1927-1930: 209 HR, 618 RBI
• Ken Griffey JR 1996-1999: 209 HR, 567 RBI
• Ryan Howard 2006 to 2009: 198 HR, 572 RBI
• Alex Rodriguez 2000-2003: 197 HR, 527 RBI
• Ralph Kiner 1947-1950: 192 HR, 495 RBI
• Jim Thome 2001-2004: 190 HR, 478 RBI
• Harmon Killebrew 1961-1964: 188 HR, 455 RBI
• Jimmie Foxx 1932-1935: 186 HR, 577 RBI
• Willie Mays 1962-1965: 186 HR, 467 RBI
• Albert Pujols 2003-2006: 179 HR, 501 RBI
• Albert Belle 1995-1999: 177 HR, 542 RBI
• David Ortiz 2004-2007: 177 HR, 541 RBI
• Ernie Banks, 1957-1960: 176 HR, 491 RBI
• Hank Greenberg 1937-1940: 172 HR, 594 RBI
• Mickey Mantle 1955-1958: 165 HR, 420 RBI
• Hank Aaron 1960-63: 163 HR, 504 RBI
• Mike Schmidt 79-82: 159 HR, 413 RBI

     Only 5 players ever hit more home runs over a 4 year period than Ryan Howard, and 3 of those 5 were known steroid users. In his best four year stretch, Howard hit 35 more homers than Hank Aaron ever hit in a four year period; his average season during that time would have been 49.5 home runs, 2.5 more than Aaron's career high! I'm not saying that Howard was anywhere near the player that Aaron was. Hank Aaron hit 30 or more home runs in 15 different seasons and his average season from ages 21-39 had him hitting .312/.380/.574 with 37 homers, 29 doubles, 5 triples, and 12 steals. But it is interesting to point out that Howard's 4 year peak had him hitting significantly more homers than the peak of the Home Run King. 

   

Even the great Hank Aaron never hit as many home runs over a four year period as Howard did from 2006-2009

          Along with being one of the greatest home run hitters that the game has ever seen, Howard was a much better pure hitter than he is often given credit for. From his rookie year in 2005 through his final pre-achilles tear season in 2011, he hit a very solid .275/.368/.560. He had three seasons with 4 or more triples and only once had fewer than 25 doubles (23 in 2010). I strongly believe that Howard's career is severely underrated by WAR. Just looking at what I would consider to be his three best seasons:

• 2006:  .313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 25 2B, 108 BB.
• 2007:  .268/.392/.584, 47 HR, 26 2B, 107 BB
• 2009: .279/.360/.525, 45 HR, 37 2B, 75 BB

Then look at the three best seasons of a player who is probably overrated by WAR, Josh Donaldson:

• 2012: .241/.289/.398, 9 HR, 16 2B, 14 BB
• 2013: .301/.384/.499, 24 HR, 36 2B, 76 BB
• 2014: .255/.342/.456, 29 HR, 31 2B, 76 BB

Here are the averages of their three best seasons, and the total WAR they had over that period (Donaldson didn't play a full season in 2012 so for his average HR, 2B, and BB I am just using 2013 and 2014):

•  Donaldson: .266/.338/.451, 27 HR, 34 2B, 76 BB, total of 16.9 WAR
• Howard: .287/.392/.589, 50 HR, 29 2B, 97 BB, total of 11.9 WAR

I get that Donaldson is an excellent defender at a position of high value (third base), but to say that he was worth 5 WAR (basically the equivalent of a full all-star level season) more than Howard across his three best seasons (by the way, that is three full seasons by Howard and only 2 and a half from Donaldson) is absurd.

          Ryan Howard is not a Hall of Fame player; he has only played 100 or more games in a season 7 times, gets too many strikeouts, and has terrible defense and base running. At his best, however, he was one of the greatest cleanup hitters the game has ever seen. Along with that, as a Phillies fan, it has been just as much of a privilege to watch him as it has been to watch Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins. He exuded power; every time he stepped up to the plate you felt like something big was going to happen. He didn't just hit home runs; he smashed balls into the upper deck with so much force that it always seemed like the ball should have simply exploded upon impact with his bat. The dominant slugger seems to be a dying breed in the current MLB. Howard hit more than 45 home runs every year from 06-09; in the 5 seasons since then only two players have topped 45 home runs in a season even once (Jose Bautista and Chris Davis), and only three have hit 40 or more home runs twice (Bautista, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera). Giancarlo Stanton is considered the most powerful young hitter in the game. His first 5 seasons have looked like this:

• .271/.364/.540, 31 homers, 28 doubles, high of 37 homers

And Howard's first 5 years looked like this:

• .279/.376/.586, 44 homers, 26 doubles, high of 58 homers

       Whatever his imperfections, a player like Ryan Howard doesn't come into the league very often, and as the league continues into this low-scoring, pitching-dominated era, guys who could hit like Howard will be missed. Do not forget the greatness of Ryan Howard; it may be a long time before we see another player like him.