Cliff Floyd vs. The Philadelphia Phillies

• Cliff Floyd was a pretty good player. He was an above average slugger who played seventeen years in the league, made an all star game, and won a World Series in 1997 with the Marlins. That is a solid career for any player, but it is not his true legacy. Floyd played fifteen of his seventeen seasons in the National League East, for the Marlins, Mets, and Expos, and he seemingly lived for one purpose: to destroy the Philadelphia Phillies. 
   
  Cliff Floyd seemed to hate the Phillies as much as Tommy Lasorda hated the Phanatic
  
  
• Floyd's best season came with the Marlins in 2001, where he hit .317/.390/.578 with 31 homers, 44 doubles, and 18 steals and made the all star team. This was also the year when he began his reign of terror against Philadelphia. It's true that he played the Phillies a lot and was familiar with them, but he also played the Mets, Braves, and Expos at least 15 times each that year, and here is how he fared versus all of those teams combined against how he hit against the Phillies:
  • NL East: 51 games,.316/.396/.470, 4 home runs, 13 doubles, 20 RBI
  • Phillies: 18 games, .300/.417/.700, 6 home runs, 6 doubles, 19 RBI
• If Floyd hit against everyone at the same rate he hit against the Phillies he would have finished 2001 with 54 home runs, 54 doubles, and 171 RBI, and may have competed with Barry Bonds for the MVP (not really; Bonds hit 73 homers that year. But if anyone else had been his competition that would have been more than MVP-level). 
  
  
  
• The next year he only played the Phillies 13 times due to being traded to Boston mid-season (he played for both the Marlins and the Expos during the first part of the year). In those 13 games he hit .282/.491/.615 with 4 homers, 9 RBI, and 11 runs scored. Not quite the numbers he put up in '01, but he still got on base almost 50% of the time and hit four home runs in 13 games, which is amazing.

• 

  Sadly, Floyd never left the NL East for very long

  After his trade to the Red Sox, the Phillies had to hope Floyd wasn't coming back. Maybe he would catch on in the American League and go bother someone else. They would have no such luck. The Mets signed him in 2003, and he went back to his Philly-smashing ways. Due to injuries that year, Floyd was not able to play the Phillies as often as he had in previous seasons. However, he made the most of that time; he hit .385/.515/.962 with 4 homers, 3 doubles, and 10 RBI in eight games. Floyd hit eighteen home runs total in his 108 games in '03; somehow he managed to get more than twenty percent of that total in his eight games in Philly.

  

  Floyd hit 4 of his 18 total home runs in '04 in eight games against the Phillies

  
  
• During the three years from 2001-2003 Floyd hit 14 home runs and 38 RBI in 39 games against Philadelphia. He mercifully slowed down a bit in '04, only hitting 239/.316/.380 with 2 homers, 4 doubles, and 11 RBI in 19 games against Philly. At 31 years old it seemed that maybe Floyd's rage had subsided, and he might be willing to treat the Phillies like everyone else. However, Floyd had other plans. 

  

  Floyd took a break from demolishing the Phillies in 2004

  
  
• In 2005, a 32 year old Floyd had his best season against the Phillies. His dominance against them was so ingrained at that point that he would hit home runs by accident. From a New York Times article after a Mets-Phillies game on 4/19/05:
  • “The Mets seemed to discover their power stroke late Monday night, when Cliff Floyd missed a take sign on a 3-0 pitch in the top of the ninth, and instead hit a home run to right field that tumbled into the second deck. Floyd tried to avoid Manager Willie Randolph, who did not seem all that disturbed. "Never mind," Randolph said.”
• The next night, the Mets seemed to gain all of Floyd's Philly-killing powers as they hit seven homers in a 16-4 rout. That day Floyd let his teammates do the heavy lifting as he had a mediocre game by his standards against the Phils; he hit only two singles and an RBI in four at bats. In total, Floyd played the Phillies 17 times in '05. In those 17 games, he got on base 31 times (22 hits, 7 walks, 2 hit by pitches). He also hit 6 home runs and a double. Here is his slash line against the Phillies in '05:
  • .373/.456/.695
• And here is how he hit against every other team (not including the Phillies)
  • .260/.346/.483
• With the boost from playing the Phillies 17 times, he ended up hitting:
  • .273/.358/.505

    

    Floyd's performance against the Phillies in '05 raised his average, OBP, and slugging percentage by more than ten points each

    
    
• Floyd didn't play the Phillies much after '05, which I believe was what allowed the Phillies to start dominating the NL East for the next several years. By 2008, Floyd was almost completely washed up, only playing 80 games and hitting 11 home runs as a DH for the Rays. He didn't face the Phils during the regular season, but he did take them on in the World Series. The Rays only played Floyd in one game during the six game series; in that game he went one for three with a single and a run scored. The end result of that game was a 4-2 victory for the Rays. This makes me wonder: if Joe Maddon is as good a manager as his reputation suggests, why didn't he play Floyd every game of that series? If he had unleashed Floyd is there any chance the Phillies would have won? The Phillies were a great team in '08, but they might never have won it all if their old nemesis hadn't been stuck on the bench. 

  

  Although the Phillies won the series, Floyd managed to beat them one last time

  
  

Don Mattingly or Rickey Henderson? MVP Voting and the Strange Obsession with the Triple Crown

• The Triple Crown is cool. It has a cool name, historical importance, and is a fun competition to follow throughout the season. To win it, one must lead the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. Only the best players are able to achieve this. Here is the total list of players who have achieved the honor since 1900: Nap LaJoie, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby (twice), Jimmy Foxx, Chuck Klein, Lou Gehrig, Joe Medwick, Ted Williams (twice), Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Carl Yastrzemski, and Miguel Cabrera. A player has to be very good to win the triple crown, but these stats are like pitcher's wins: they indicate who the best players are but do not fully evaluate them. First, batting average. It is almost a meaningless stat compared to on base percentage. Batting average just includes hits, OBP includes hits and walks. Since a walk counts for exactly as much as a single (assuming the single doesn't drive home a run), it doesn't make any logical sense to not include them. Next: Home runs. A home run is the best possible thing that a baseball player can do. However, doubles, triples, and steals all count for extra bases as well and need to be measured. Third: RBIs. RBIs indicate how much a hitter contributes, but are entirely dependent on the other players on the team. On it's own the Triple Crown is a fun competition and a great achievement. The problem is that the league MVPs almost every year are selected on the base of these three stats, ignoring other important measures of player value. 

  

  Rogers Hornsby won the Triple Crown in 1922, hitting .401 with 42 home runs and 152 RBI

• The player who missed out on the most MVP awards due to the Triple Crown evaluation method is almost certainly Rickey Henderson. It is weird to think that the Hall of Famer and all-time leader in stolen bases and runs scored is underrated, but he may have been. Henderson only won the MVP once, but he should have won several more. The main reason for this is that he didn't hit for a high average, and (since he was a lead off hitter) didn't hit very many home runs or RBIs. Henderson's two greatest skills- on base ability and base stealing- are the two most undervalued (offensive) skills in MVP voting. 

  

  Rickey Henderson was dominant at getting on base and then taking more bases

  
  
• Measuring offensive output is fairly simple. It doesn't require advanced stats; just basic logic. A single or walk counts for one base, a double is two, triples are three, and home runs count for four bases. The simple way to look at the value of a steal is that it is worth one base, the same as a single or a walk; a player stealing second upgrades his hit to a double. If a player is caught stealing, then that downgrades the value of his at bat to an out. Strikeouts, ground outs, and pop flies are neutral. They don't create anything, but don't take anything away. Grounding into a double play is negative since it takes away a player who was already on base. A player could also hit a sacrifice fly, but those are not really intentional (they would obviously rather get a hit) so I'm not counting them. So, a way to truly evaluate the total run-producing value of a player would be this simple formula, which I will call total bases/total runs created (I am aware that a stat called runs created already exists, but I can't think of a better name):
  • Total bases created= Total bases [singles + (doubles*2) + (triples*3) + (home runs*4)] + walks and HBP + steals - times caught stealing - double plays grounded into
  • Divide that by four to get total runs created (4 bases=1 run)
• Henderson was massively underrepresented throughout the 80's in MVP voting. He would be far more productive than the league's MVP most years, but would not perform as well on the Triple Crown stats and therefore would not win the award. Take his rookie year in 1980 compared to that year's AL MVP George Brett:
  • Total bases created formula:
    • Brett: (298 total bases + 58 walks + 15 steals - 6 times caught stealing - 11 double plays grounded into)/4 =
      • 88.5 total runs created
    • Henderson: [236 total bases + 117 walks + 100 steals - 26 times caught - 6 double plays]/4=
      • 106.5 runs created
  • Brett was no where near Henderson in total offensive output, although he was a better defensive player. However, Brett won the MVP while Henderson finished 10^th. The reason why is a reliance on triple crown stats. Brett looks much better than Henderson if one only looks at those three measures.
  • Triple Crown Stats:
    • Brett: .390, 24 home runs, 118 RBI
    • Henderson: .303, 9 home runs, 53 RBI
  • Brett was certainly an outstanding player in 1980, and he was a deserving MVP. The issue is, the MVP race should have been a two man competition between him and Henderson. Instead, Henderson finished tenth in AL MVP voting behind four players who hit over .300 with more than 100 RBIs (Brett, Reggie Jackson, Cecil Cooper, and Eddie Murray), two very good relief pitchers (Goose Gossage and Dan Quisenberry), one starter having an out of nowhere 25 win season (Steve Stone, who would only play one more season after 1980 and never won more than 15 games in any other season), the Yankees' catcher (Rick Cerone, who was an excellent defender but never better than good for a catcher on offense), and the poor man's Henderson (Willie Wilson, who had a higher batting average than Henderson, but his OBP was 63 points lower and he had 31 fewer steals). Other than Cerone and the pitchers, everyone who finished higher in voting than Henderson did so because of batting average, home runs, and RBIs, ignoring just how much Henderson actually contributed to his team.

    

    George Brett was incredible in 1980, but still wasn't as productive as Henderson

    
    
  • Henderson's impact on his team's run totals was consistently staggering. In 1993, he was traded from the A's to the Blue Jays 2/3 of the way through the season:
    • Blue Jays RBI totals:
      • Roberto Alomar (batting second)
        • Without Henderson: 122 hits, 59 RBI, .49 RBI/hit
        • With Henderson: 70 hits, 40 RBI, .57 RBI/hit
      • Paul Molitor (batting third):
        • Without Henderson: 134 hits, 68 RBI, .51 RBI/hit
        • With Henderson: 77 hits, 43 RBI, .56 RBI/hit
      • Team record:
        • Without Henderson: 60-43, .58 winning percentage
        • With Henderson: 34-20, .63 winning percentage

• Team runs scored per game
  • Without Henderson: 5.2
  • With Henderson: 5.6

• The two players hitting directly behind Henderson drove in significantly more runs than they did without him. The team also increased their winning percentage by 5% after adding Henderson, and they went on to win the World Series All this despite the fact that Henderson wasn't hitting particularly well (for him) during those two months, only batting .215/.356. He did walk almost twice as often as he struck out, and he stole 22 bases. Now check out how the A's fared with and without him:
  • Record:
    • With Henderson: 43-58, .43 winning percentage
    • Without Henderson: 25-36, .41 winning percentage
  • Runs scored per game:
    • With Henderson: 4.6
    • Without Henderson: 4.1
• In 1993, a 34 year old Henderson having about an average season for him was able to be worth about half a run per game more than whoever he replaced.
•  The 1985 Yankees got about the same improvement in runs scored per game by adding Henderson:
  • 1984 Yankees
    • 4.7 runs per game
  • 1985 Yankees
    • 5.2 Runs per game

      

      Henderson added half a run per game to any offense he played for

      
      
• The 1984 Yankees had basically the same lineup as in '85. They still had superstars Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield, and Willie Randolph. The only significant difference was replacing Omar Moreno in center field with Henderson. It wasn't like Henderson was replacing an average player in the lead-off spot either; Randolph hit first in '84 and hit .287/.377 although he only had 10 steals. The other main difference on the team was Mattingly's RBI totals:
  • 1984: 207 hits, 110 RBI, .53 RBI/hit
  • 1985: 211 hits, 145 RBI, .69 RBI/hit 

    

    Mattingly was a great player, but the main reason he hit so many RBIs in 1985 was the presence of Rickey Henderson

• Mattingly was a much better player in 1985 than he was in 1984, and he was certainly one of the five best players in the league. The hits/RBI stat is a bit misleading for him because he had a lot more extra base hits in '85 than he did in '84. However, Mattingly ended up winning the MVP in '85 while Henderson finished third, despite Henderson clearly being the top reason for the Yankees improved offense. That year was the most egregious example of voters valuing RBIs more than creating runs. Henderson finished 1985 with an outstanding 111.5 runs created, not quite Barry Bonds level (Bonds created 150.5 runs, almost one per game, in 2001), but right around Willie May's level (Mays created 115.75 runs in his 51-homer 1955 season). Mattingly finished with a (still very good) 102.75 runs created. However, just like Brett five years earlier, Mattingly had much better triple crown stats than Henderson:
  • Mattingly: .324, 35 homers, 145 RBI
  • Henderson: .314, 24 homers, 72 RBI

• Mattingly was outstanding in 1980, but saying he was better than Henderson that year is almost (yes, this is an exaggeration) like if Guy Rogers won the NBA MVP with his league-leading 825 assists on the 1962 Philadelphia Warriors instead of his teammate Wilt Chamberlain who averaged 44 points per game (Bill Russell somehow ended up winning the 1962 MVP instead). Mattingly was a very good player, but Henderson was the guy creating and scoring most of the runs. Throughout his career, whoever hit behind Henderson would always get a lot of RBIs; just look at Dwayne Murphy. In 1982 Murphy batted after Henderson in the A's lineup, and he hit 94 RBIs despite only having 127 hits. In 1983 Murphy did it again: he had 75 RBIs in 107 hits. In 1985, the year Henderson left, Murphy was only able to get 59 RBIs in 122 hits despite the fact that he hit more homers, doubles, and triples than he did in 1983. Henderson's on base ability and amazing base running allowed him to convert a much higher percentage of his team's hits to runs scored. He was worth about half a run per game more than the average lead off hitter, which is about a 10% improvement. If the purpose of baseball is to score more runs than the other team, then a player who adds 10% more runs per game than his replacement should probably have won more than one MVP.
• Although Henderson probably lost the most potential MVP awards due to the Triple Crown bias, he is far from the only player to be affected by it. Miguel Cabrera is an example of a player who has both benefited and been hurt by this bias. In 2011 he led the MLB in OBP (.448) and doubles (48) and walked 19 times more than he struck out, which is an incredible feat in the pitching-dominated 2010s. He also led the MLB in batting average (.344) but he “only” hit 30 homers and 105 RBIs, and he finished fifth in MVP voting. The next year his OBP was 55 points lower (.393), he had 32 more strikeouts than walks, and his batting average dropped 14 points. However, that year he hit .330 with 44 home runs and 139 RBI, winning the American league triple crown and the MVP. Here is a comparison between the two years:
  
  
  
  • 2011:
    • Led MLB in average, OBP, and doubles
    • Stat line: .344/.448/.586, 179 OPS+, 105.75 runs created
    • Fifth in AL MVP voting
  • 2012:
    • Led MLB in home runs and RBI, led American league in average and SLG
    • Stat line: .330/.393/.606, 164 OPS+, 105.25 runs created
    • Won AL MVP
• Cabrera was a bit better in 2011, but in 2012 he changed his game, getting on base way less and hitting more home runs and RBIs, and he won the MVP. At the same time, Mike Trout received the same treatment in MVP voting:
  • 2012:
    • .326/.399/.564, 168 OPS+, 67 walks, 49 steals, 106.25 runs created
    • Second in AL MVP voting (72% of vote)
  • 2013:
    • .323/.432/.557, 179 OPS+, 110 walks, 33 steals, 116.5 runs created
    • Second in AL MVP voting (67%)
  • 2014:
    • .287/.377/.561, 167 OPS+, 83 walks, 16 steals, 109.75 runs created
    • Won AL MVP (100%)
• Then look at his triple crown stats for those years:
  • 2012: .326, 30 home runs, 83 RBIs
  • 2013: .323, 27 home runs, 97 RBIs
  • 2014: .287, 36 home runs, 111 RBIs

    

    Trout won the MVP when he stopped getting on base and stealing so often

• In order to win the MVP, Trout had to drop his Henderson skills (on base percentage and base running) and raise his Mattingly skills (home runs and RBI). He was the best player in the MLB by any measure in 2014 either way, and since Cabrera wasn't as dominant as he was in 2012 and '13 he was basically running unopposed, but it is still interesting to see how his MVP votes rose along with his RBI total while his overall productivity fell.
• The bottom line is this: home runs, RBI, and batting average are great. However, they are not the only ways a player contributes to their team. The most undervalued stats in MVP voting are on base percentage and steals. The more times a player is on base, the more chances he has to score, and good base running puts him in a better position to score. This is pretty basic logic. The most productive player possible would hit a home run every single at bat (basically like Barry Bonds from 2001 to 2004). However, non-Bonds players can't do that, so they find other ways to create runs. Rickey Henderson only hit for a .300 batting average seven times in 25 seasons, he only had three 20+ home run seasons, and he never hit 100 RBIs. However, he stole more than 50 bases 13 times and he had a .400 or higher OBP 15 times (and had two more .390 OBP seasons). He even led the league in walks (118) and steals (66) in 1998 when he was 39 years old! These skills made him worth about half a run per game more valuable than whoever he replaced. Despite the value that a player like Henderson can provide, MVP voters seem to be stuck in the mindset that only three stats matter: batting average, home runs, and RBI. The game of baseball is won by more than just power hitters batting cleanup, and the MVP award should reflect that.

Josh Willingham: The Most Underrated Baseball Player of the 21st Century

• Josh Willingham retired after the 2014 season with very little fanfare. He was a backup outfielder and DH on the American League champion Royals, but had only four at at bats in the 2014 postseason. That was the only time he ever made it into the playoffs, and the only award he won in his career was a Silver Slugger in 2012. He was so unremarkable that despite the fact that I have probably watched half of the Phillies games over the past 10 years, I couldn't remember whether or not he ever played in Philadelphia (I was actually thinking of Ty Wigginton in 2012). He was a journeyman who played for 5 teams in his 11 seasons, starting on the Marlins, then moving on to the Nationals, the Twins, the A's, and the Royals. In his 8 career seasons where he played over 100 games he only played on one team with a .500 record (the 2008 Marlins who went 84-78). The teams he played for in those 8 seasons had a combined record of 567-728. On the surface, his career looks pretty average, indistinguishable from other boring guys with a bit of power like Wigginton, Luke Scott, or Kelly Johnson. But when you look at the statistics he put up, Willingham was an extremely efficient and consistent player, and may have been incredibly underrated.
  
  
  
• One of the best ways to measure a player's public perception is all star game appearances. It is based on voting from fans, players, and managers, and while it may not always show who the best players are, it shows who the public believes to be the best players. Willingham never made an all star game. On it's own that isn't especially strange. Most players never make an all star game. However, very few players as productive as Willingham never make it. In his career, Willingham hit 195 home runs, 216 doubles, and 553 walks. Exactly 200 players have hit over 190 homers, 200 doubles, and 500 walks in their careers since the first all star game in 1933. Of those 200, only 17 have never been all stars, and 5 of those 17 (Travis Hafner, Kevin McReynolds, Deron Johnson, Kirk Gibson, and Eric Karros) finished in the top 5 of MVP voting at some point in their careers.
   Since his first full season in 2006, Willingham has hit 20 or more home runs in 5 different seasons. During that time, 47 players have had at least 5 such seasons. Only 3 of those 47 (Willingham, Mark Reynolds, and Adam LaRoche) have never been all stars. His 194 home runs since 2006 put him 30^th  overall in that period, and are comparable to Brian McCann (194), Justin Morneau (193), Josh Hamilton (192), Hanley Ramirez (191), and David Wright (189). Since 2006, he has a .358 OBP, which is 30^th among all players who have played at least 1000 games during that time. Of those 30, only him and David DeJesus have never been all stars.

  

  Since 2006, Justin Morneau has played 1183 games and hit .288/.356/.488 with 193 homers. In that time he has won an MVP award, been to 4 all star games, and won 2 silver sluggers. He hit 34 home runs in 2006, the second most by a Twins player in the 21st century.

  
  

  

  Since 2006, Willingham has played 1147 games and hit .253/.358/.467 with 194 homers. In that time he has won 1 Silver Slugger. He hit 35 home runs in 2012, the most by a Twins player in the 21st century.

• Willingham excelled at doing positive things that aren't especially noticeable. Consistency is a trait that is usually only observed when it is missing. It was very noticeable in 2011 when Ryan Howard hit .266/.370/.550 with 30 home runs against right handed pitchers and then only hit .224/.286/.347 with 3 homers against lefties. It was extremely noticeable when Chris Davis went from hitting .286 with 53 home runs and 42 doubles in 2013 to hitting .196 with 26 homers and 16 doubles in 2014. It isn't quite so noticeable when Willingham puts up freakishly consistent splits over his entire career:
  • Against RHP vs LHP
    • RHP: .254/.355/.457
    • LHP: .248/.368/.486
  • Home vs. away games
    • Home: 554 games, .250/.360/.462, 93 homers, 98 doubles, 279 walks
    • Away: 593 games, .255/.368/.468, 102 homers, 118 doubles, 274 walks
  • Number of outs in inning (he has 1549, 1527, and 1540 career plate appearances respectively at each):
    • 1: .263/.361/.489, 73 HR, 72 doubles, 5 triples, 171 walks
    • 2: .251/.349/.460, 61 HR, 76 doubles, 5 triples, 174 walks
    • 3: .243/.365/.445, 61 HR, 68 doubles, 5 triples, 208 walks
  • Night vs. day games
    • Night: .251/.357/.452
    • Day: .255/.361/.471
• The only split I could find with any noticeable variance was positive: he hit .263/.387/.469 with runners in scoring position and .252/.404/.480 with two outs and runners in scoring position, compared to .246/.344/.466 without RISP. Willingham was like a baseball robot: he would go out and hit with above average power and plate discipline no matter what situation he was in. 
  
  
  
• Just being a remarkably consistent right handed power hitter would make Willingham an exceptional player, but what really set him apart was his excellence in the little stats: hit by pitches and double plays grounded into. His 112 career HBPs are 4^th most by any player since 2005, and his 86 career GIDPs are tied for the 41^st fewest by any player who has played at least 1000 games since 2005. Power hitters with that many HBPs and that few GIDPs are incredibly rare. There have been only 3 players in the history of baseball who have hit over 190 career home runs, been hit by over 100 pitches, and grounded into fewer than 100 double plays: Brady Anderson, Chase Utley, and Josh Willingham. 
  
  
  
• Willingham wasn't a hall of fame player, or among the greats of his generation. He never developed a significant fan base since he never played more than three seasons for any team, and was never a major contributor on a playoff team. Most of the teams that he played for were terrible. But he was, for almost a decade, a quietly effective, all star level player, and he should be remembered as such.
  
  
  

The Case For a Breakout 2015 from Domonic Brown

   

       A few times each generation, a player is able to make the big leagues in their late teens or early twenties and immediately succeed. Think Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Mel Ott, Ty Cobb, and Mickey Mantle. This particular generation has seen quite a few of these types of players, with Trout being joined by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jason Heyward, and Giancarlo Stanton. These players seem to have made some believe that immediate major league stardom by top prospects is the norm rather than the exception. In reality, only a certain type of player succeeds at that age. They are all way above average in both speed and power, have gold glove defensive tools, and are able to adjust to major league pitching very quickly. When Dom Brown was first called up, he was expected to join this group. In 2011, MLB.com listed Brown as the 4^th best prospect in baseball, behind only Trout, Harper, and Jeremy Hellickson. He was ranked ahead of future stars such as Aroldis Chapman (6), Freddie Freeman (17), Machado (24), Chris Sale (25), and Devin Mesoraco (45) as well as many other solid major leaguers. For a brief period in 2013, Brown appeared to be living up to his immense hype, hitting .291/.325/.612 with 18 homers, 10 doubles, and 3 triples over May and June and making the All Star Game. He then followed that up with only 6 home runs, 8 doubles, and 1 triple over the final 3 months of 2013, and hit only .235/.285/.349 with 10 homers and 22 doubles in 2014. Brown is not, as was once expected of him, a well rounded superstar who would come into immediate MLB success. What is more likely is that his career path will follow that of a different type of star: the power hitter who figures it out and becomes a star in his late 20s. 

Mickey Mantle had already hit 249 career home runs before he turned 27; shockingly, this is not common.

      The most extreme example of this archetype is Jose Bautista. Bautista played his first full season at age 25. In his first four seasons, from ages 25-28, he was a pretty mediocre player. He hit .242 with 15 homers and 22 doubles per season over that period, with highs of 16 homers and 36 doubles. Then in 2010, at age 29, he suddenly hit 54 homers and 35 doubles, and he has hit more home runs than anyone else this decade (by which I mean way more; he has hit 187, Miguel Cabrera is second with 181, third is a tie between Albert Pujols and Giancarlo Stanton at 154).

Jose Bautista came out of nowhere to become the most prolific home run hitter of the 2010s

      A more likely career path for Brown is that of Carlos Pena. In 2001, Baseball America rated Pena as the 11^th best prospect in baseball. He played his first full season at 24, and for his first three seasons he averaged .241 with 21 HR, 20 doubles, and 5 triples per season. Like Brown he showed flashes of his potential. Pena's age 26 season and Brown's age 25 were almost identical; here is a comparison:

• Pena, 2004: .241/.338/.472, 27 HR, 22 2B, 4 triples, 7 steals, 2.8 WAR
• Brown, 2013: .272/.324/.494, 27 HR, 21 2B, 4 triples, 8 steals, 2.1 WAR

Both of them followed that up with a pretty weak season. Pena then hit 46 home runs in 2007 and averaged .236/.366/.505 with 34 HR, 25 doubles, and 4.0 WAR per season from 2007 through 2011. So the career path for both started as top prospects then went into several mediocre seasons with flashes of potential. Pena then became a star; Brown might do so as well.

Carlos Pena was a former top prospect who failed to live up to expectations until his late 20s

        Pena and Bautista are far from the only examples of this. Unlike the 5-tool types listed earlier, players whose main skill is power tend to break out in their late 20s or early 30s. Here are a few more examples:

Player	Age of first full season	Average season pre breakout	Career high home runs pre breakout	Age of breakout and breakout year stats	Career high home runs post breakout
Tino Martinez	24	18 HR, 22 2B, 1.2 WAR	20	27; 31 HR, 35 2B, 4.5 WAR	44
Edwin Encarnacion	23	18 HR, 25 2B, .9 WAR	26	29; . 42 HR, 24 2B, 5.0 WAR	42
Chris Davis	22	11 HR, 15 2B, -.4 WAR	21	26; 33 HR, 20 2B, 1.6 WAR	53
David Ortiz	24	16 HR, 28 2B, 2.5 WAR	20	27; 31 HR, 39 2B, 3.3 WAR	54
Jermaine Dye	22	13 HR, 20 2B, .9 WAR	27	26; . 33 HR, 41 2B, 4.6 WAR	44
Domonic Brown	25	18 HR, 22 2B, .7 WAR	27	?	?

      Although Brown first came up in 2010, he has only actually played two full seasons, and he was an All-Star in one of them. A bad season by a good player in their mid-20s isn't always a good predictor of future performance. His age 25 and 26 seasons were almost identical to Paul Konerko's age 26 and 27 seasons. Here is a comparison:

• Konerko 2002: Hit 27 home runs and was elected to the All Star game on the back of a monster June where he hit .340 with 12 homers; never hit more than 4 home runs in any other month. Finished with 2.1 WAR.
• Brown 2013: Hit 27 home runs and was elected to the All Star game on the back of a monster May where he hit .303 with 12 homers; never hit more than 6 home runs in any other month. Finished with 2.1 WAR.
• Konerko 2003: Hit .234 with 18 homers, 19 doubles, and -.6 WAR.
• Brown 2014: Hit .235 with 10 homers, 22 doubles, and -1.4 WAR.

          Konerko in 2003 was better than Brown in 2014, but not by much. Konerko followed that season up with two consecutive 40 home run seasons, and would go on to hit 310 more homers in his career from age 28 to his retirement at 38. 

White Sox legend Paul Konerko, like Brown, followed up an all star season in his mid 20s with a below-replacement level season. He then played for 11 more years and made 5 more All Star games

     I may just be an optimist. Brown may never reach his full potential; there have certainly been plenty of talented top prospects who for whatever reason never quite make it. There are also a lot of power hitters who struggle through their early to mid 20s and then figure things out and become stars in their late 20s. Brown might never become a 40 home run guy, and even if he does it might not be next year and he might not do it on the Phillies. However, if he does have a big 2015 it would be far from unique. Players almost never reach their power potential in their early 20s. Here are some numbers on home runs and age in recent years:

• Number of players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season since 2005:
  • 57
• Number of players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season since 2005 who were 25 or younger:
  • 13
• Number of players who have hit 35 or more home runs in a season since 2005 who were 24 or younger:
  • 4 (Stanton, Trout, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun)

Players like Stanton and Trout are rightfully praised for being so great at such a young age, but most players just aren't physically mature enough to consistently hit home runs in the major leagues in their early 20s. Brown has already shown that he has the power to hit a lot of home runs; in May 2013 he was able to hit 12 in a single month. Brown's main weakness on offense is his plate discipline, a trait that tends to improve with age and experience. A lot of writers and analysts have written Brown off as a terrible player on a hopeless Phillies team after his bad 2014. This seems to me like an incredibly short sighted view. Really, what would be stranger: Brown bouncing back after a bad season and putting up the best season of his career as he enters his late 20s, or a former All Star and top prospect being a complete bust with no hope for the future at 27? Power hitters do not peak when they are 25; aging in baseball almost never works that way. Brown may have already had his best season, but I think that it is much more likely that he will greatly improve over the next few years. 

All stats in this post are from Baseball Reference

Masters of “Little Stats” and Baseball IQ: Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Jayson Werth, and Shane Victorino

       In Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract, he said that Joe Morgan was the “greatest percentage player in baseball history.” He based this on a stat he called Percentage Player Index (or PPI, as I will refer to it), which he had created as a way to measure baseball IQ. The stats he used were:

• Fielding Percentage
• Stolen Base Percentage
• Strikeout To Walk Ratio
• Walk Frequency

  

  Joe Morgan: Incredibly smart player, incredibly stupid broadcaster

  
  

       He combined these stats, rated players in them compared to the average player in their era, and found that Joe Morgan was, according to that statistic, the most intelligent player ever. Fielding percentage is a little-used statistic nowadays, but it is a good indicator of a player's defensive instincts and positioning. When describing Jackie Robinson, James said:

• “'Is it not possible, I wonder, that Jackie's intelligence created benefits for his team that only show up in the statistics?.... if an infielder makes a diving stop of a line drive, he wins recognition as a defensive wizard. But if he anticipates the play, and moves two steps to his left before the ball is hit, it's a routine play, and nobody notices it....Isn't it possible that Jackie just anticipated the play more than anyone else did?”

Jackie Robinson didn't make very many spectacular defensive plays, but he had great defensive value due to his intelligence and ability to always be in the right position

     Stolen base percentage is a way to show good judgment and anticipation. There is an art to base stealing beyond just being fast; obviously you need speed, but it is also a matter of deceiving the pitcher and catcher by taking a lead short enough for them not to react but long enough to be able to reach the base in time, as well as jumping off at the exact instant the pitcher begins his windup in order to have enough time to reach the base. Raw speed isn't enough; BJ Upton is one of the fastest players in the league, but his career stolen base percentage is only 77%. Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders may have been the two fastest men to ever play in the MLB, but their steal percentages are only 72 (Jackson) and 75 (Sanders). Taking a lot of walks and very few strikeouts is the ultimate sign of a high baseball IQ. It shows patience and an unwillingness to swing at pitches that can't be hit. The walk is one of the only plays in baseball that relies almost purely on intelligence rather than athleticism.

           Three more measures that often don't stick out on a stat sheet but are great indicators of how effective a player is are what James calls “little stats:” Double plays grounded into (GIDP), sacrifice flies, and hit by pitches (HBP). Sacrifice flies are the best possible way a hitter can get out, and double plays are the worst. Hit by pitches are the ultimate sacrifice play; the hitter has to be willing to lean into a 90 mile per hour pitch just to get to first base. All of these stats show players positively effecting the game without really showing up on a player's main conventional stats. Craig Biggio was a master of these little stats; in 1997 he was hit by 34 pitches while grounding into zero double plays. The 34 hit by pitches were the third most in a single season since 1900, and he was the fifth player ever to go a full season without ever grounding into a double play.

Craig Biggio was a master at doing the little things

        The Phillies were a dominant team in the late 2000s and early 10's. One of the many reasons for this is that their lineup was absolutely stacked with players who were historically great in these little stats that indicate intelligence, hustle, and a team-first mentality. The most notable of these were Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Ruiz.

         Second basemen who have the ability to hit .330 and over 30 home runs are incredibly rare; in fact, only 5 second basemen since 1950 (including Utley) have ever had a .330+ batting average and over 20 home runs in a season (it is hard to compare modern stats to those before the second half of the 20^th century; players used to have seasons like Rogers Hornsby's 1922 where he hit .401 with 42 homers). Only 14 second basemen since 1950 have had even one season with over 30 homers; Utley has hit that mark three times. By any measure Utley is among the best hitting second basemen of all time, but his true greatness lies in his baseball IQ and hustle. 

              Utley is outstanding historically in all of the PPI and little stats. The average walk/strikeout ratio by a hitter in 2014 is somewhere around .415. Over his career, Utley's BB/K is .653 (603 walks to 923 strikeouts), almost 250 points higher than the average. This doesn't compare well to the PPI king Joe Morgan and his outrageous 1.84 ratio, but Morgan played in an era with a lot more walks and less strikeouts. Here is a quick comparison:

Year	1974	2014
Players with at least 100 BB	8	2
League leader in BB	126, Darell Evans	113, Carlos Santana
Players with at least 100 strikeouts	20	117
League leader in strikeouts	138, Mike Schmidt	190, Ryan Howard

           Seeing as the MLB leader in strikeouts 40 years ago would finish tied for 28^th in 2014 and there were almost six times as many players with at least 100 strikeouts, I think that I can safely say comparing that statistic across eras is almost meaningless.

          While Utley is only really great relative to his era on BB/K, he is among the best ever at stolen base %, HBP, and GIDP. Among all players in MLB history with at least 100 career stolen base attempts, Utley is first in stolen base percentage at 88.5%. He is 16^th all time in career HBPs, and has been hit 169 times in his career, 36 times more than any active player other than Alex Rodriguez (who has also been hit 169 times, but has played in over 1000 more games than Utley). Since 2005 (his first full season), Utley has hit into the 5^th fewest double plays of any player who has played at least 1300 games in that period (meaning an average of 130 games per year). He also has a career fielding percentage of .987, which compares favorably to Morgan's .981, although he plays in an era of much higher average fielding percentages.

No one has ever been more efficient at stealing bases than Utley

Utley has been hit by 169 pitches in his career

          While Utley is absolutely incredible across the board on PPI and little stats, he is not the only Phillie from that era to put up incredible numbers. Remember how he was first all time in SB% among all players in MLB history with at least 100 career stolen base attempts? Jayson Werth is third, Shane Victorino is 22^nd, and Jimmy Rollins is 24^th. In 2007, the Phillies had the highest single season team stolen base percentage in MLB history at 87.9%. The likely reason for all of this is that their first base coach from 2007 to 2010 was Davey Lopes, who as a player was 21^st all time (one spot ahead of Victorino) in career stolen base percentage. So 5 of the top 25 players ever in SB% either played or coached for the Phillies between 2007 and 2010. 

Davey Lopes: great base stealer, better first base coach

          Utley's career BB/K ratio of .653 is way above the average for his era, but it isn't much higher than Victorino's .614, and it pales in comparison to Carlos Ruiz's amazing .868. Ruiz has walked more or the same amount of times as he has struck out in four of his seven career 100+ game seasons. From 2006-2011 he actually had a career BB/K ratio of 1.02. Relative to his era, Ruiz is almost unmatched in his ability to not strike out. Since his first full season in 2007, only 5 players who have played at least 900 games in that time have fewer strikeouts than he does.

Ruiz almost never strikes out

      Ruiz was, like Utley, willing to take a lot of HBPs. Since 2007, Ruiz has 65 HBPs, 11^th among all players during that period. Victorino is not far behind him, sitting at 15^th overall with 61. Jayson Werth is 33^rd, with 46. This feels like a good time to mention that Utley was hit 138 times over that period, and no one other than Utley had more than 99 HBPs.
           The other thing that Ruiz excelled at that doesn't really show up in the stats is handling pitchers. This consists of things like pitch framing, calling pitches, and keeping the pitchers calm and happy. There aren't many stats for this, but it can be seen in the stats of the pitchers he has called games for. He has called 4 different no-hitters in his career, 3 in the regular season and 1 in the playoffs, which puts him in a tie for first all time along with Jason Varitek. Pitchers generally improve their performance with Ruiz as their primary catcher. Cliff Lee had already won a Cy Young award in 2008 with the Indians, but his two best seasons by WAR came in 2011 and 2013 with the Phillies. Roy Halladay won the Cy Young in 2003 and was already a likely Hall of Famer when he came to the Phillies, but his two best seasons by WAR also came on the Phillies in 2010 and 2011. With the Astros in 2007 Brad Lidge had 19 saves and a 3.36 ERA. The next year on the Phillies he had a 1.95 ERA and 41 saves and finished 4th in Cy Young and 8th in MVP voting.

           These guys were either given bases on balls or hit by pitches quite a lot, but they also put the ball into play a lot, and when they did good things happened. From 2006-2013, Victorino grounded into 48 double plays, the third fewest of anyone who played at least 1000 games during that time. Meanwhile, he hit 60 sacrifice hits and flies. Victorino, Werth, and Utley are all in the top 15 of fewest GIDPs since 2006 of players who have played at least 1000 games, and since 2005, Utley is 7^th among all players in sac flies, and Ryan Howard is 16^th.

           So the Phillies were incredibly effective at the plate and on the base paths, but what about in the field? If we are basing their defensive intelligence, as James did, on fielding percentage, the Phillies were outstanding. Among active players, Victorino is first among center fielders with a .9962 career fielding percentage. Rollins is second among shortstops, Werth is 6^th among right fielders, Ruiz 6^th among catchers, and Utley is 13^th among second basemen. 

Shane Victorino is a great hitter and one of the best center fielders in the game

       The Phillies' dedication to doing all the little things right led to some incredibly effective seasons, such as:

• Shane Victorino, 2011:
  • Normal Stats: 
    • .279/.355/.491, 17 HR, 27 2B, 16 3B, 19 SB
  • Pretty good, but also consider:
    • He only grounded into 5 double plays
    • He had an 86% stolen base rate (only caught 3 times)
    • He had a .873 BB/K rate (55 BB, 63 K)
• Chase Utley, 2009:
  • Normal Stats:
    • .282/.397/.508, 31 HR, 28 2B, 4 3B, 23 SB
  • Little stats:
    • Grounded into only 5 double plays
    • He was hit by 24 pitches
    • He had a 100% stolen base rate (23 for 23)
    • Had a .800 BB/K rate (88 BB to 110 K)
• Carlos Ruiz, 2010
  • Normal Stats:
    • .302/.400/.447, 8 HR, 28 2B
  • Little Stats:
    • Grounded into only 8 double plays
    • 1.02 BB/K rate (55 BB to 54 K)
    • He caught and called both of Roy Halladay's No-Hitters
• Jayson Werth, 2008
  • Normal stats:
    • .273/.363/.498, 24 HR, 16 2B, 20 SB
  • Little stats:
    • Only hit into 2 double plays in 134 games; the year before he hit into zero in 94 games
    • Had a 95% SB rate; 20 steals in 21 attempts

      

      Werth almost never hit into double plays, was a great base runner, and was very good in the field

     

Werth also may have had the most drastic image makeover of any player in baseball history

          It would be one thing if there were one or two players on a team excelling at these little things, but when a single team has a handful of the best ever at a few statistical categories you have to consider how good the coaching, managing, and player development on the Phillies was. It isn't really possible to teach players to hit 36 homers like Werth did in 2009, or hit 16 triples like Victorino in 2011. 20-20 guys who can hit .300 don't grow on trees, although the Phillies did seem to have a lot of them. What can be taught and coached is taking a lot of walks, never getting thrown out on the base paths, not grounding into double plays, and not making mistakes in the field. These are the things that great teams do that separate them from good teams with a collection of star players.

The Great Ryan Howard

     

       Ryan Howard in 2014 was not a particularly good player. Really, he was pretty bad. He led the MLB in strikeouts, hit only .223/.310/.380, with 23 home runs and 18 doubles, and finished the year with -1.1 WAR. Injuries and natural decline due to aging have caused him, along with the Phillies team around him, to become a shadow of their former self. However, his rapid decline and massive contract have caused some to forget about just how good Howard was. In 2006 he was named Rookie of the Year. Then from 2007-2011 he finished in the top ten in National League MVP voting every year for 6 straight seasons, winning once, and going to three All-Star games. He was not some one dimensional slugger like Adam Dunn or Dave Kingman; Howard was a truly dominant player and one of the great power hitters of all time. 

      The job of a cleanup hitter is to bat 4^th, after the team's 3 best on-base guys , and hopefully drive them home to score runs. For the four year period of 2006-2009, Ryan Howard did this better than pretty much anyone ever. The players who hit in front of him during this period were very good at getting on base. From 06-09 Chase Utley had an OBP of .391, Jimmy Rollins' was .330, and Shane Victorino's was .351. Ryan Howard was very good at sending them home. This lineup led the Phillies to finish 4^th, 2^nd, 8^th, and 4^th in the league in runs scored during those years, while winning the NL East every year and going to two World Series. During this 4-year stretch, Howard had 572 RBI, an average of 143 per year. 

      The best possible thing that a baseball player can do to help his team win games is hit home runs. It is very simple. A home run automatically equals at least one run scored, and on a team like the late 2000's Phillies, it usually means more than one run scores. If the goal of baseball is to win games, and games are won by scoring more runs than the other team, then a player who hits a lot of home runs is very valuable. And, for a four year period, Ryan Howard hit more home runs than almost anyone else ever. Here is a list of the most home runs ever hit over a 4 year period:

• Mark McGwire, 1996-1999: 245 HR, 530 RBI
• Sammy Sosa, 1998-2001: 243 HR, 597 RBI
• Barry Bonds 2000-2003: 213 HR, 443 RBI
• Babe Ruth 1927-1930: 209 HR, 618 RBI
• Ken Griffey JR 1996-1999: 209 HR, 567 RBI
• Ryan Howard 2006 to 2009: 198 HR, 572 RBI
• Alex Rodriguez 2000-2003: 197 HR, 527 RBI
• Ralph Kiner 1947-1950: 192 HR, 495 RBI
• Jim Thome 2001-2004: 190 HR, 478 RBI
• Harmon Killebrew 1961-1964: 188 HR, 455 RBI
• Jimmie Foxx 1932-1935: 186 HR, 577 RBI
• Willie Mays 1962-1965: 186 HR, 467 RBI
• Albert Pujols 2003-2006: 179 HR, 501 RBI
• Albert Belle 1995-1999: 177 HR, 542 RBI
• David Ortiz 2004-2007: 177 HR, 541 RBI
• Ernie Banks, 1957-1960: 176 HR, 491 RBI
• Hank Greenberg 1937-1940: 172 HR, 594 RBI
• Mickey Mantle 1955-1958: 165 HR, 420 RBI
• Hank Aaron 1960-63: 163 HR, 504 RBI
• Mike Schmidt 79-82: 159 HR, 413 RBI

     Only 5 players ever hit more home runs over a 4 year period than Ryan Howard, and 3 of those 5 were known steroid users. In his best four year stretch, Howard hit 35 more homers than Hank Aaron ever hit in a four year period; his average season during that time would have been 49.5 home runs, 2.5 more than Aaron's career high! I'm not saying that Howard was anywhere near the player that Aaron was. Hank Aaron hit 30 or more home runs in 15 different seasons and his average season from ages 21-39 had him hitting .312/.380/.574 with 37 homers, 29 doubles, 5 triples, and 12 steals. But it is interesting to point out that Howard's 4 year peak had him hitting significantly more homers than the peak of the Home Run King. 

   

Even the great Hank Aaron never hit as many home runs over a four year period as Howard did from 2006-2009

          Along with being one of the greatest home run hitters that the game has ever seen, Howard was a much better pure hitter than he is often given credit for. From his rookie year in 2005 through his final pre-achilles tear season in 2011, he hit a very solid .275/.368/.560. He had three seasons with 4 or more triples and only once had fewer than 25 doubles (23 in 2010). I strongly believe that Howard's career is severely underrated by WAR. Just looking at what I would consider to be his three best seasons:

• 2006:  .313/.425/.659, 58 HR, 25 2B, 108 BB.
• 2007:  .268/.392/.584, 47 HR, 26 2B, 107 BB
• 2009: .279/.360/.525, 45 HR, 37 2B, 75 BB

Then look at the three best seasons of a player who is probably overrated by WAR, Josh Donaldson:

• 2012: .241/.289/.398, 9 HR, 16 2B, 14 BB
• 2013: .301/.384/.499, 24 HR, 36 2B, 76 BB
• 2014: .255/.342/.456, 29 HR, 31 2B, 76 BB

Here are the averages of their three best seasons, and the total WAR they had over that period (Donaldson didn't play a full season in 2012 so for his average HR, 2B, and BB I am just using 2013 and 2014):

•  Donaldson: .266/.338/.451, 27 HR, 34 2B, 76 BB, total of 16.9 WAR
• Howard: .287/.392/.589, 50 HR, 29 2B, 97 BB, total of 11.9 WAR

I get that Donaldson is an excellent defender at a position of high value (third base), but to say that he was worth 5 WAR (basically the equivalent of a full all-star level season) more than Howard across his three best seasons (by the way, that is three full seasons by Howard and only 2 and a half from Donaldson) is absurd.

          Ryan Howard is not a Hall of Fame player; he has only played 100 or more games in a season 7 times, gets too many strikeouts, and has terrible defense and base running. At his best, however, he was one of the greatest cleanup hitters the game has ever seen. Along with that, as a Phillies fan, it has been just as much of a privilege to watch him as it has been to watch Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins. He exuded power; every time he stepped up to the plate you felt like something big was going to happen. He didn't just hit home runs; he smashed balls into the upper deck with so much force that it always seemed like the ball should have simply exploded upon impact with his bat. The dominant slugger seems to be a dying breed in the current MLB. Howard hit more than 45 home runs every year from 06-09; in the 5 seasons since then only two players have topped 45 home runs in a season even once (Jose Bautista and Chris Davis), and only three have hit 40 or more home runs twice (Bautista, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera). Giancarlo Stanton is considered the most powerful young hitter in the game. His first 5 seasons have looked like this:

• .271/.364/.540, 31 homers, 28 doubles, high of 37 homers

And Howard's first 5 years looked like this:

• .279/.376/.586, 44 homers, 26 doubles, high of 58 homers

       Whatever his imperfections, a player like Ryan Howard doesn't come into the league very often, and as the league continues into this low-scoring, pitching-dominated era, guys who could hit like Howard will be missed. Do not forget the greatness of Ryan Howard; it may be a long time before we see another player like him.

Creating the Perfect Baseball Player

If you could take the skills of any baseball player in history and combine them into one Frankenstein's monster of a player, who would you take?

First quality: The Vision and Plate Discipline of Barry Bonds

   From the ages of 25-39 Bonds had a .313 batting average with a .468 OBP. From 2001-2004 he hit over .500 OBP each year, and his .609 OBP in 2004 is the highest of all time. His .582 in 2002 is second best all time. The third highest single season OBP is Ted Williams in 1941 who hit .553, 56 points lower than Bond's best. He holds the 3 highest single-season walk totals in MLB history and 6 of the top 20 totals. Rickey Henderson is second in career bases on balls with 2190, Babe Ruth is third with 2062. Bonds is first all time with 2558; 368 more career walks than the second highest total! Despite the fact that he was walked on 21% of his career plate appearances, he still managed to get a lot of hits; his 2935 career hits are good for 33rd all time.

The Glove and Throwing Arm of.... Barry Bonds

   Barry Bonds is mostly known for hitting. However, he also won eight gold gloves in his 22-year career. He is 16th in career double plays turned by a left fielder and second in career defensive WAR by a left fielder. He put up 179 career TZR (total fielding runs above average), good for first all time among left fielders and 45 runs better than the next best left fielder (Carl Yastrzemski at 134)

The Speed of, you guessed it, Barry Bonds

    Bonds is 33rd all time in career steals with 514. This is not overwhelmingly impressive on it's own, until you consider that he hit either a home run or a triple on 839 of his 2935 career hits. Since you can't steal bases when you hit a homer or triple, that drastically lowers his chances to steal bases. Then consider that of the 37 players who have at least 500 career stolen bases, only 5 have over 300 home runs + triples (Rickey Henderson, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Joe Morgan, and Paul Molitor) and none have more than Cobb's 412 (still not even half of Bond's). Bond's career Power-Speed number (a stat that measures the mean of a player's career home runs and stolen bases) is 613, first all time. The second best ever is Henderson at 490.

The Power of Barry Bonds

 The single most valuable thing a player can do on a baseball field is hit home runs. It gives their team automatic points without needing other players to hit in order to score. Barry Bonds hit more home runs than anyone else. His 762 career homers are the most of all time, and his 73 in 2001 is the highest single season total ever. He probably could have hit another 100 homers in his career if he wasn't intentionally walked so often; he was intentionally walked 688 times over his career, 395 more than second place Hank Aaron. In fact, in the five-year span from 2000 to 2004 he was intentionally walked 16 more times than Aaron was in his entire 21 year career. His 120 intentional walks in 2004 are 75 more than anyone other than himself ever got in a season. It is impossible to tell just how many homers he would have hit if pitchers weren't too scared to actually throw the ball to him. He wasn't just a masher though; his 1440 career extra base hits are second only to Aaron's 1477, and he has 63 more extra base hits than Stan Musial who is third all time with 1377.
  Also, he was just outrageously powerful. Remember how he used to routinely smash balls into the ocean in McCovey Cove, to the point where it was pretty much expected that he would do it a few times every week?

The Giants keep track of hits into McCovey Cove, they call them Splash Hits. Bonds made them look incredibly easy, and he hit into the Cove 35 times. This is insane because AT&T park is generally very hard on left handed power hitters due to the right field wall being 24 feet high. The second highest career total for splash hits belongs to Pablo Sandoval with seven.
      It really seems like there is no need to create the perfect baseball player; he already existed. He had great genes; he is cousins with Reggie Jackson and his dad Bobby played 14 seasons in the league and was a 3 time all star who hit 332 career home runs and had 461 career stolen bases.  He was groomed to be a Giants great with his father and godfather (Willie Mays) both playing on the Giants He was born with unbelievable talent and athletic ability and delayed his aging and enhanced his power with PEDs (like every single other player of his era). He was the greatest defensive left fielder ever while also being the greatest power hitter ever and was fast enough to steal over 500 bases. Whatever anyone thinks about Bonds as a person really doesn't impact how good he was as a player, and he certainly isn't the worst person in the top group of baseball players (Ty Cobb, for example, was much worse). Although people outside of San Francisco don't like him, no conversation of who is the greatest baseball player of all time can be complete without Barry Bonds.

Jimmy Rollins: The Perfect Phillie

J Roll with his World Series ring

Every team has certain players who are the icons of the franchise, the most recognizable and beloved stars the organization has ever had. The Yankees have had a bunch from Ruth to Gehrig to DiMaggio to Mantle to Jeter. The Orioles had Cal Ripken, The Cardinals had Stan Musial, the Cubs had Ernie Banks. The Marlins had a bunch of greats but they traded them all. Some players, due to their leadership, charisma, and connection with their fans transcend statistical measures and become legends. The Phillies are one of the MLB's oldest teams, and have had their share of great players. The greatest third baseman to ever play the game, Mike Schmidt, played in Philly. Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, Pete Alexander, and Bobby Abreu all spent most or all of their careers there. The Phillies have had an incredible number of great players recently. From the years 2005-2014 Phillies players have combined for 26 All Star Games, a Rookie of the Year, 6 Silver Sluggers, 7 Gold Gloves, 2 MVPs, a Cy Young, and have had players lead the league in home runs twice and in RBI and triples 3 times. They went to two World Series and won the National League East for four consecutive years. Three of the top five seasons in WAR by a pitcher since 2005 have come on the Phillies (Roy Halladay 2011 and 2010, Cliff Lee 2011). Three of the top 6 pitchers in total WAR since 2005 played on the Phillies (Halladay is second, Lee is third, and Cole Hamels is sixth). Chase Utley is second only to Albert Pujols in total WAR since 2005. In this giant group of all time greats, only one player is the perfect icon for the team: Jimmy Rollins.

Short, scrappy, and absurdly talented: Jimmy Rollins is the perfect Philadelphia sports icon.

                   Rollins' career saw him lead two generations of Phillies teams. From 1988-2000 the Phils only had 1 winning season, their 97 win 1993. The next best season after that was 78 wins in 1991. Then, in 2001, Jroll's rookie year, they started winning. From 2001-2012, they only had one losing season (2002 when they went 80-81). For his first few years, Rollins was part of a pretty good core of Phillies along with Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, Placido Polanco, Mike Lieberthal, and Jim Thome. With that group they were able to average 85 wins per year from 2001-2004. When the Phillies were ready to transition from a good to a great team Rollins led the way. Before the 2007 season began, he said:

“The Mets had a chance to win the World Series last year. Last year is over. I think we are the team to beat in the NL East, finally. But, that's only on paper."

        That season the Phillies won the first of their four consecutive division championships. From 2005-2007 the Phillies young talent exploded as they brought up players like Utley, Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Madson as well as adding Jamie Moyer and Brad Lidge in free agency. In the late 2000s and early 10's they added Halladay, Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Throughout all this time, Jimmy Rollins remained the team's leader.

Lidge and Ruiz after winning the World Series

            With his leadership alone, Rollins' status as a Phillies legend would have been guaranteed. But Rollins was never all talk. He is an incredible player. In Phillies history, he is 10^th all time in career WAR, second in games played, third in runs scored, first in hits, first in doubles, third in triples, ninth in home runs, and second in steals. He is among the leaders in pretty much every statistical category for a team that has been around since 1883. 

 

Rollins sets the Phillies all time hits record. Great moment for a great player.

           Rollins' variety of skills is almost unbelievable. In only 14 seasons, he has 2306 hits, 216 home runs, 479 doubles, 111 triples, and 453 steals. There have been only six players in the history of the MLB with 2,000+ hits, 200+ home runs, and 450+ stolen bases: Paul Molitor, Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Roberto Alomar, Joe Morgan, and Rollins. Only Molitor and Rollins have also had over 100 career triples. Rollins has played 289 fewer career games than Roberto Alomar, the player with the next fewest career games played in this club.

J Roll and Manager Charlie Manuel

          How about this for well-roundedness: in 2007, the year Rollins won the MVP, he hit .296/.344/.531 with 30 homers, 38 doubles, 20 triples, and 41 steals. That season put him in the exclusive 20-20-20-20 club of players who recorded at least 20 homers, doubles, triples, and steals in a single season. He is only joined in this club by Willie Mays in 1957 (35 homers, 26 doubles, 20 triples, and 38 steals) and Frank “Wildfire” Schlute in 1911 (21 homers, 30 doubles, 21 triples, and 23 steals). You know you're good when the only player to match you within 90 seasons is Willie Mays. 

Willie Mays: You might have heard of him. He was pretty good.

                Rollins has had five seasons with at least 10 hr, 20 2b, 10 3b, and 30 sb, and had two more where he met all of the criteria but with only 9 triples. This is tied for the most such seasons in MLB history. Only Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes match him with five, only George Sisler has done it four times, and only Willie Mays and Johnny Damon have three 10-20-10-30 seasons. Very few players can even come close to comparing to Rollins in his ability to fill up a stat sheet.

           During his Phillies career Rollins wasn't just the team's vocal leader and one of the most versatile offensive players ever. He is a fantastic defensive player at shortstop, the second hardest position on the field after catcher. Of all shortstops in MLB history, Rollins is 21^st in double plays turned, 30^th in total fielding runs above average, 3^rd in fielding percentage, and is tied for 6^th in Gold Gloves with 4. 

Rollins and Utley, the greatest double play team of their generation

             Rollins wasn't a perfect player. He struck out too often for a lead off hitter, and could have probably hit for a much higher average if he swung with less power. These flaws were often criticized by the Philadelphia fans (you know, the ones who booed Donavan McNabb when he was drafted and drove Scott Rolen and Eric Lindros out of town). However, Jimmy Rollins is the perfect Philadelphia athlete.
        Philly wants tough guys and big talkers, hyper competitive types who have been called too small or too slow their whole lives. We want Brian Dawkins, Brian Westbrook, and Allen Iverson. Philly sports fans have a completely different attitude from that of fans of other teams around the country. That comes with having incredibly passionate fans and teams that are mostly successful but rarely great. The Eagles have never won the Super Bowl, the Phillies have more total losses than any other major sports franchise, Villanova and the 76ers haven't won a championship since the 80s, and the Sixers' current goal is to lose as many games as possible. Compare that to fans in New York who can root for consistent excellence with the Yankees, Giants, and Rangers, or, if they are masochists, choose to cheer on the Jets, Nets, Mets, Islanders, and Knicks. Being New York fans they will also be completely ignorant of whether their team is actually any good and just assume that they are. San Francisco fans have had 2 of the 5 greatest football players ever (Montana and Rice) and 2 of the 3 best baseball players ever (Mays and Bonds), have won 5 Super Bowls, and seem to be on track to win the World Series every other year for the rest of time. Boston fans have a chip on their shoulder like Philly fans, but their 4 major teams have won 25 championships since 1960 and 9 in the past 15 years, so they really shouldn't complain. The most similar sports city to Philadelphia is really Seattle, who had their beloved Sonics stolen to go play in one of America's worst states, have won zero championships with the Mariners (despite having all time greats like Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro, Jamie Moyer, and Randy Johnson and winning a MLB record 116 games in 2001), and had never won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks until 2014.
               Effortless greats like Alex Rodriguez or Shaquille O'Neal would never fit in in Philly. Terell Owens is one of the most hated athletes in Philadelphia sports history. Philly boxers are always the underdog to the more perfect, more polished, more athletic guy; think Rocky Vs Apollo Creed, Joe Frazier vs. Muhammad Ali, or Bernard Hopkins vs Roy Jones Jr. Philadelphia was once America's capital, home of Benjamin Franklin and the Liberty bell; but today is always overshadowed by New York, Boston, and Washington DC. Now remember that back in 2001, Jimmy Rollins finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting after Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Roy Oswalt, and CC Sabathia. Looking back to that year, as a Phillies fan, who would I want to pick to play on my team for the next 15 years? Pujols, the muscular baseball god who would go on to be the greatest hitter of his generation? Ichiro, the smooth, polished, ready-made superstar from Japan? The short Mississippi ace Oswalt, or the giant fastballer Sabathia? Given the choice, I think it worked out perfectly. I would want to have the short, speedy guy from Oakland who was just cocky enough to believe that he could be a power hitter and that the Phillies could overcome years of mediocrity to win the World Series. He may not have been as great a player as Chase Utley or Roy Halladay, but the Phillies would not have become the team they became without Rollins.

   The Philly Greats (Clockwise): Bernard Hopkins, Allen Iverson, Kyle Lowry, Rollins, Jameer Nelson, and Brian Dawkins.